Standard ERA was used for the actual 2009 stats however, making the 2009 staff seem worse than it really was, as the Red Sox had one of the worst defensive teams in the majors last year. The lineup reshuffling should greatly improve the defense though. Also, as you can see, the walk and strikeout rates are projected to be slightly better. Without much context, these numbers are hard to gauge.
|2009 AL Ranks||2||7||1||7|
|2010 Proj. AL Ranks||1||3||1||2|
The 2010 projected AL rankings are where my 2010 projections would rank relative to the 2009 statistics. As you can see, the 2009 Red Sox pitching staff was a great strikeout staff and the 2010 staff is projected to be even better. Based on FIP, the Red Sox should allow 663 earned runs. Assuming that they give up a proportion of earned runs : runs similar to 2009 AL averages, the staff would give up a total of 716 runs.
Based on my admittedly rosy lineup analysis of 926 runs scored, that would make the Red Sox a 101 win team, using the Pythagorean wins formula created by Bill James. With the more conservative estimate of having the Red Sox match last year's offensive production (872 runs), that would still make the Red Sox an expected 97 win team. I doubt that even this information would get Dan Shaughnessy to stop writing about this ridiculous "bridge" year though.