State of the System: Center Field

As I mentioned in the post on Baseball Prospectus' take on the Sox farm system, the Red Sox have an awful lot of outfield prospects with a chance to stick in center field. I'll take a closer look at three of them here - Ryan Kalish, a 21 year old who just finished up a season at AA and finally Reymond Fuentes, the Red Sox first round draft pick from April. For some thoughts on Westmoreland, see my post on BP's prospect rankings for the Red Sox.

Everywhere I look it seems to pop up that Ryan Kalish's biggest strength is his lack of weaknesses. He makes good contact, plays good defense in centerfield, and has the tools to be a 20/20 player in the majors. Without any outstanding tools there is some downside though. If Kalish fills out too much for centerfield he may end up as a tweener with defense a little too weak for centerfield but a bat that is a little weak for right or left - think David Murphy. Between high A and AA last year Kalish his 18 homeruns and stole 22 bases in 28 attempts. The power was nice to see after a 2008 after Kalish slugged .397 in the hitter friendly California league, although the low slugging could be tied to a lingering wrist injury from 2007. Sox Prospects has him starting the season in AAA, but I could see the organization starting him in AA or AAA as the organization has shown they're willing to promote players directly from AA, although this has been more common for pitching prospects. Even without a major league callup next season the Sox will need to add Kalish to the 40 man roster, otherwise he'll be Rule 5 eligible during the offseason next year. Kalish is playing in the Arizona Fall League right now, and is hitting .306 with one home run and 4 stolen bases, but with only a .387 slugging percentage.

Reymond Fuentes was the Red Sox first round pick in this April's draft. If you've read anything about him you're probably already aware that: 1. He is Carlos Beltran's cousin 2. His workouts were supposed to be amazing. Beyond that there isn't an awful lot to know about Fuentes, an 18 year old high schooler from Puerto Rico. Depending on who you want to believe he's either 5'10" or 6'1", is extremely fast and projects to have good power. Fuentes held his own in his pro debut in the Gulf Coast rookie league, but it will take several years before the Sox really know what to expect from him. Unlike Beltran, even under the rosiest projections Fuentes is not projected to be a 30 home run hitter.

State of the System: First Base

Note: Andrew did all the research for this piece and most of the writing.

First base is a really tricky position for prospects. A lot of the really good prospects start somewhere else, and get moved to first due to defensive limitations, so a minor leaguer that is already at 1B really needs to project to be a middle of the order threat in order to be a top tier prospect. Red Sox fans know that players can develop into middle of the order hitters relatively late, Kevin Youkilis is the prime example, but it is rare.

The two main prospects for the Red Sox are Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo. Coming into 2009, Lars Anderson was one of those rare, top tier 1B prospects. Baseball America pegged him as the #1 prospect for the Sox and spent most of their write-up gushing about his swing, plate discipline, make up, and power potential, thanks to his impressive .316/.426/.536 line in 133 AA at bats in 2008. To say that 2009 was a disappointment for Anderson is an understatement. Staying in AA, he managed a meager .233/.328/.345 line over 447 at bats. The drop-off stemmed from a large decline in batting average on balls in play and isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average). The batting average on balls in play could be bad luck, but combined with the drop off in isolated power it indicates that Anderson was not driving the ball with authority last year. Anderson projects to be an average 1B with the glove, so he really needs to hit to have value. It’s hard to say what happened last season- Anderson didn’t have any injury issues that I am aware of, but next season will be a very important one for him. Anderson isn’t playing any winter ball, so we’ll have to wait until next spring to get another look at him.

While Anderson had an off year, Anthony Rizzo came back strong following chemotherapy for Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. While Rizzo’s raw offensive numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as Anderson’s were in 2008, Rizzo did hit .295/.371/.420 in high A as a 19 year old, less than a year after his chemotherapy finished. Currently, Rizzo’s best offensive tools are his plate discipline and gap power to all fields. At 6’4” and 210 pounds, Rizzo likely has some filling out to do; for comparison Justin Morneau is 6’4” and 235 lbs. Beyond physical maturation, Baseball America believes that when Rizzo learns to pull the ball more he could hit 20+ home runs a season and hit with a good average and great OBP. It’s very hard to project based on A numbers, without even addressing the recovery from cancer and chemotherapy. Needless to say, Rizzo is very hard to project. Between naturally filling out and Lester’s steady improvement in velocity in the 2 years following chemotherapy, you have to wonder what Rizzo will be capable of by the time he’s 22. Rizzo is also one of the best defensive first basemen in the minors, so he can get away with being less of an offensive force, unlike Anderson, although when all is said and done you need to hit to play 1B in the majors. .

So, where does this leave the Sox? If not for Anderson, the logical place for Rizzo next season would be AA. Some people think that Rizzo, by the virtue of being two years younger than Anderson, may have passed him on the organizational depth chart. Because Rizzo has only a half a season at High A I think he’ll start the season there and Anderson will repeat AA Portland. Before Anderson’s disappointing, many were predicting that he would force his way in to the Sox lineup some time in 2010, especially if there were an injury at either corner infield position. Now it looks like Anderson will need one more year in the minors, with Rizzo needing at least two more years. The good news is that the Sox are set at first base with Kevin Youkilis under contract until 2012 (with a 2013 club option) and Casey Kotchman arbitration eligble through 2011 as a backup, so the Sox can afford to wait and see how these two prospects do next season. Of course, with Mike Lowell’s contract expiring after 2010, if Anderson has a big year next year he might be penciled in at 1B for 2011, with Youkilis sliding back to 3B.

State of the System: Catcher

Andrew and I will be running through the Red Sox system position by position over the next month or so, highlighting the interesting prospects in the Red Sox system.

The Red Sox have a bit of an odd roster construction right now, with a total of 5 catchers on the 40 man roster. The strengths and weaknesses of Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez are likely familiar to you already. George Kottaras, has some promise, but appears to lack the contact skills to be an average hitter in the majors and Dusty Brown is defensive minded backup who hasn't been able to hit well at AAA. Finally, you have Mark Wagner, the only one of the five who hasn’t appeared in the major leagues yet. Of the three non-regular catchers, Wagner is by far the most interesting.

At 25, Wagner is not an elite prospect. His minor league career has been up at down, with a fairly regular pattern appearing. During his first stint in a league Wagner struggles. Despite being a relatively polished college player from UC Irvine, Wagner only managed a .570 OPS in his first crack at A ball. The following season he excelled in the Sally League, posting a .842 OPS before getting promoted to the Carolina League (high A) where he put up a .520 OPS in 65 at bats. The pattern continued in 2007 when he crushed A+ pitching for the entire season, followed by a disappointing .666 OPS in AA Portland as a 24 year old in 2008. At the end of the season last year there were some doubts as to the viability of Wagner as a major leaguer, but a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, followed by a great season in AA this year (.301/.410/.477) raised his stock substantially. Unsurprisingly, he did struggle in AAA for the second half of the year (.619 OPS), causing the Red Sox to leave him off the roster during September roster expansions. He’s doing his best to erase those doubts with a massive start to winter ball in the Dominican, hitting .346/.455/.615 with 2 home runs in 26 at bats.

Scouting wise, Wagner has a great defensive reputation, an excellent batting eye, and makes solid contact. Wagner’s clear weakness is his lack of power (only 6 HR in 307 AB split between AA and AAA last year); despite this fact, I think his all around skill set makes him a great backup catcher. It wouldn’t shock me if Wagner would be able to out produce Varitek as soon at next year. When taking into account Victor Martinez’ defensive limitations behind the plate, the switch makes even more sense. Given that catchers often develop offensively much later than other position players it wouldn’t be shocking for Wagner to become a second tier starter. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Wagner put up a .280/.350/.400 line next year. While a .750 OPS isn’t going to carry a team, it would have been good for 15^th among catchers with 250 AB last year. In the event of an injury to Youkilis or Victor Martinez turning to Wagner might be the best offensive option short term.

Luis Exposito is the other interesting catcher in the Red Sox system. In many ways, Exposito is Wagner’s opposite. Unlike Wagner, Exposito only had one year in junior college before being signed as a draft and follow pick just before the 2006 draft. He is young for his league (appeared in AA at 22, a full two years before Wagner did), is highly projectable, with the potential for 25 home run power, but he can be prone to strikeouts and does not have a great batting eye. In 2009 Exposito held his own in A+ ball, posting a .756 and hit even better during a short stint at AA. Although Exposito put up a .371 OBP in Portland this year, that was inflated by a high batting average. Prior to AA, the highest OBP of Exposito's minor league career was .332. Exposito will open next season at AA and is at least two years away from making an impact at the major league level, but he has the potential to be an all star catcher if he can learn to control the strike zone better.