Down on the Farm

We're a few weeks in to the minor league season, so I thought I'd check in on how some of the Red Sox top prospects are doing.

Kolbrin Vitek was the Red Sox first round pick in 2010 (20th overall). Because he signed right away, Vitek was able to get 286 at bats split between low A and high A in 2010, putting up a combined .274/.364/.418 with 4 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Vitek is building on a solid debut with a .300/.404/.450 line. That line is particularly impressive given that he started the season by going 2/23. Coming in to the draft, Vitek's bat wasn't in question, but where he would play uncertain. The Red Sox have been playing him at third base, but the jury is still out whether or not he'll be able to stick there.

Anthony Ranaudo was a supplemental round pick for the Red Sox. As I've written before, Ranaudo came in to the college season as a candidate for the #2 pick behind Bryce Harper, before falling due to a poor season. While he didn't sign in time to play any minor league games, the Red Sox were able to see him dominate the Cape Cod League, presumably tipping the scales in favor of signing him for $2.5 million. So far this season, Ranaudo has rewarded the major investment in him, striking out 15 in 15 innings in A ball, while only giving up one run. Given his polish as a college ace, Ranaudo could move up to AA relatively quickly.

Jose Iglesias has been touted as the guy who will close the revolving door at shortstop for the Red Sox. Jed Lowrie is doing his best to establish himself there, but many are predicting Iglesias as the shortstop by midseason of 2012. Iglesias' glove has been described as the best many scouts have seen, and so far his hitting has been a pleasant surprise, hitting .295/.339/.379 as a 20 year old in A and AA. Iglesias has struggled so far this year (.257/.316/.257) in AAA, but it is a very aggressive assignment. Because the bat isn't ready I don't think we'll see him in the majors this season, except for maybe a cup of coffee in September. Iglesias is just 21 years old, so there isn't a need to rush him to the majors, especially with emergence of Lowrie and the steady, if unspectacular, production of Scutaro.

A couple of old friends are doing well in San Diego. Anthony Rizzo, one of the key parts of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, is dominating in AAA, hitting .436/.483/.764. Rizzo is showing his power spike in AA last year, 25 home runs, more than doubling hit previous high, was not a fluke by hitting four home runs in his first 60 at bats. Rizzo could be a huge contributor in San Diego very soon. It's always disappointing to see a prospect breakout after being traded away, but you don't get bats like Adrian Gonzalez cheaply. Casey Kelly, the top prospect in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, has also been solid in three AAA starts. Although he has a 3.31 and 1.04 WHIP through his first 16 innings, the strikeout rate has not been particularly impressive. Kelly has always been touted as a pitcher with an advanced approach, but sooner or later he'll need to strikeout more batters if he is going to become the #2 pitcher that many scouts project him to become.

Moving right along the defensive spectrum

There have been some rumblings about moving Pedroia back to shortstop. This would be a bit unusual, as players typically move to easier positions as they age. Bill James came up with the idea of the defensive spectrum in his 1982 Baseball Abstract, and it works something like this:
1B—LF—RF—3B—CF—2B—SS—C
Essentially the idea is that players on the left side of the spectrum require the least amount of defensive ability, but are expected to carry the offense. You could throw DH on there on the left side, if you'd like. Craig Biggio had perhaps the most interesting movement across the spectrum, starting at catcher, moving to second base, then center field and left field, before returning to second base.

Pedroia is an above average second baseman (UZR/150 10.6 in 2009 and 10.5 in 2008) and the cost to shift from second base to shortstop is considered to be somewhere around 10 runs, so the numbers indicate he could be an average defensive shortstop. Offensively, a replacement level shortstop is about 7 runs worse than the replacement level second basemen, so this wouldn't change Pedroia's overall value to the team, but would give them more flexibility in the free agent or trade market. Pedroia played shortstop at Arizona State (bumping Ian Kinsler from the starting lineup, who later transferred to Missouri), so shortstop isn't something completely new. Pedroia even played shortstop throughout the minors, making more appearances there than at 2B in 2006, his last year at AAA. Last year Alexei Ramirez shifted from second base to shortstop and his UZR/150 improved from -10.6 to 2.4. Shortstop was Alexei's natural position and he had basically be thrown in at second base in 2008, so it isn't a perfect comparison.

The one knock against this move is that Pedroia was moved off of short for a reason. Coming up through the minors his arm strength was questionable for the position, especially when making throws from the hole. However, his minor league defensive error totals are spectacular (only 7, as Gammons points out), so if arm strength isn't an issue it could be a nice move for the Sox. Another important point Gammons makes is that this would likely be a short term move, as Jose Iglesias, the 19 year old Cuban shortstop, is supposed to be a spectacular defender.