Down on the Farm

We're a few weeks in to the minor league season, so I thought I'd check in on how some of the Red Sox top prospects are doing.

Kolbrin Vitek was the Red Sox first round pick in 2010 (20th overall). Because he signed right away, Vitek was able to get 286 at bats split between low A and high A in 2010, putting up a combined .274/.364/.418 with 4 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Vitek is building on a solid debut with a .300/.404/.450 line. That line is particularly impressive given that he started the season by going 2/23. Coming in to the draft, Vitek's bat wasn't in question, but where he would play uncertain. The Red Sox have been playing him at third base, but the jury is still out whether or not he'll be able to stick there.

Anthony Ranaudo was a supplemental round pick for the Red Sox. As I've written before, Ranaudo came in to the college season as a candidate for the #2 pick behind Bryce Harper, before falling due to a poor season. While he didn't sign in time to play any minor league games, the Red Sox were able to see him dominate the Cape Cod League, presumably tipping the scales in favor of signing him for $2.5 million. So far this season, Ranaudo has rewarded the major investment in him, striking out 15 in 15 innings in A ball, while only giving up one run. Given his polish as a college ace, Ranaudo could move up to AA relatively quickly.

Jose Iglesias has been touted as the guy who will close the revolving door at shortstop for the Red Sox. Jed Lowrie is doing his best to establish himself there, but many are predicting Iglesias as the shortstop by midseason of 2012. Iglesias' glove has been described as the best many scouts have seen, and so far his hitting has been a pleasant surprise, hitting .295/.339/.379 as a 20 year old in A and AA. Iglesias has struggled so far this year (.257/.316/.257) in AAA, but it is a very aggressive assignment. Because the bat isn't ready I don't think we'll see him in the majors this season, except for maybe a cup of coffee in September. Iglesias is just 21 years old, so there isn't a need to rush him to the majors, especially with emergence of Lowrie and the steady, if unspectacular, production of Scutaro.

A couple of old friends are doing well in San Diego. Anthony Rizzo, one of the key parts of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, is dominating in AAA, hitting .436/.483/.764. Rizzo is showing his power spike in AA last year, 25 home runs, more than doubling hit previous high, was not a fluke by hitting four home runs in his first 60 at bats. Rizzo could be a huge contributor in San Diego very soon. It's always disappointing to see a prospect breakout after being traded away, but you don't get bats like Adrian Gonzalez cheaply. Casey Kelly, the top prospect in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, has also been solid in three AAA starts. Although he has a 3.31 and 1.04 WHIP through his first 16 innings, the strikeout rate has not been particularly impressive. Kelly has always been touted as a pitcher with an advanced approach, but sooner or later he'll need to strikeout more batters if he is going to become the #2 pitcher that many scouts project him to become.

A Prospect Check Up - Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo

Since writing this the Sox called up Lars Anderson to AAA. Not a bad plan to be a bit aggressive with a guy who has already spent a year and a half in AA, albeit with little success last year.

Coming into this season Anthony Rizzo and Lars Anderson seemed to be headed in very different directions. Anthony Rizzo was coming off a very impressive season split between the Sally League (the South Atlantic League, which is a low A league) and the Red Sox high A affiliate in Salem. Anderson, on the other hand, had a massively disappointing season at AA, hitting only .233/.328/.345 with 9 home runs in a repeat of AA Portland. Although Anderson came in to the season as the Red Sox #1 prospect, because of his poor showing and Rizzo's impressive 20-year-old season, analysts were split on who was the better prospect. Because of Rizzo's limited time in the Sally League and Anderson's poor performance as a SeaDog, the Sox kept both of them in high A and AA, respectively.

Lars Anderson is currently hitting .328/.388/.672 in Portland. While it is a small sample size, his slugging percentage is nearly double that of last year, plus he's already hit 5 home runs in 58 at bats, compared to 9 in 450 last year. Anderson is currently leading the Eastern League (one of the AA leagues) in slugging, OPS, and home runs. While there are still four months to go in the minor league season, it is great to see Anderson excelling after such a poor 2009. Anderson turns 23 in late September, so it wouldn't be shocking to see him as a September call up this year.

Just like Anderson, Rizzo is also hitting extremely well to start the season, posting a .304/.380/.507 line to start his season in high A Salem. The knock on Rizzo has always been that he might not have enough power to be an above average first baseman at the major league level. The .500 slugging thus far is a nice bump from the .420 in high A last year, although he'll need to maintain that power as he moves up the minor leagues. That said, with his batting eye and defensive abilities, he has a great shot at being a solid major leaguer.

So far it seems that not moving Rizzo or Anderson up has paid off. It wouldn't shock me to see one or both of them move up to the next level within the next month or so. Rizzo can't really be promoted without also promoting Anderson, although fortunately Anderson already has a full season and a half at AA, so he may be heading down to Pawtucket before too much longer.

State of the System: First Base

Note: Andrew did all the research for this piece and most of the writing.

First base is a really tricky position for prospects. A lot of the really good prospects start somewhere else, and get moved to first due to defensive limitations, so a minor leaguer that is already at 1B really needs to project to be a middle of the order threat in order to be a top tier prospect. Red Sox fans know that players can develop into middle of the order hitters relatively late, Kevin Youkilis is the prime example, but it is rare.

The two main prospects for the Red Sox are Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo. Coming into 2009, Lars Anderson was one of those rare, top tier 1B prospects. Baseball America pegged him as the #1 prospect for the Sox and spent most of their write-up gushing about his swing, plate discipline, make up, and power potential, thanks to his impressive .316/.426/.536 line in 133 AA at bats in 2008. To say that 2009 was a disappointment for Anderson is an understatement. Staying in AA, he managed a meager .233/.328/.345 line over 447 at bats. The drop-off stemmed from a large decline in batting average on balls in play and isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average). The batting average on balls in play could be bad luck, but combined with the drop off in isolated power it indicates that Anderson was not driving the ball with authority last year. Anderson projects to be an average 1B with the glove, so he really needs to hit to have value. It’s hard to say what happened last season- Anderson didn’t have any injury issues that I am aware of, but next season will be a very important one for him. Anderson isn’t playing any winter ball, so we’ll have to wait until next spring to get another look at him.

While Anderson had an off year, Anthony Rizzo came back strong following chemotherapy for Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. While Rizzo’s raw offensive numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as Anderson’s were in 2008, Rizzo did hit .295/.371/.420 in high A as a 19 year old, less than a year after his chemotherapy finished. Currently, Rizzo’s best offensive tools are his plate discipline and gap power to all fields. At 6’4” and 210 pounds, Rizzo likely has some filling out to do; for comparison Justin Morneau is 6’4” and 235 lbs. Beyond physical maturation, Baseball America believes that when Rizzo learns to pull the ball more he could hit 20+ home runs a season and hit with a good average and great OBP. It’s very hard to project based on A numbers, without even addressing the recovery from cancer and chemotherapy. Needless to say, Rizzo is very hard to project. Between naturally filling out and Lester’s steady improvement in velocity in the 2 years following chemotherapy, you have to wonder what Rizzo will be capable of by the time he’s 22. Rizzo is also one of the best defensive first basemen in the minors, so he can get away with being less of an offensive force, unlike Anderson, although when all is said and done you need to hit to play 1B in the majors. .

So, where does this leave the Sox? If not for Anderson, the logical place for Rizzo next season would be AA. Some people think that Rizzo, by the virtue of being two years younger than Anderson, may have passed him on the organizational depth chart. Because Rizzo has only a half a season at High A I think he’ll start the season there and Anderson will repeat AA Portland. Before Anderson’s disappointing, many were predicting that he would force his way in to the Sox lineup some time in 2010, especially if there were an injury at either corner infield position. Now it looks like Anderson will need one more year in the minors, with Rizzo needing at least two more years. The good news is that the Sox are set at first base with Kevin Youkilis under contract until 2012 (with a 2013 club option) and Casey Kotchman arbitration eligble through 2011 as a backup, so the Sox can afford to wait and see how these two prospects do next season. Of course, with Mike Lowell’s contract expiring after 2010, if Anderson has a big year next year he might be penciled in at 1B for 2011, with Youkilis sliding back to 3B.