Bye bye Manny

But it is a different one this time. The Red Sox traded away Manny Delcarmen to the Colorado Rockies today in exchange for starting pitching prospect Chris Balcom-Miller. Delcarmen's fall from grace has been a precipitous one; in the 2007 and 2008 offseasons many writers and fans speculated that he could be traded, netting the Sox a starter elsewhere and putting Delcarmen into a closer role with his new team. Looking at his numbers, you can understand the excitement. Delcarmen posted a 2.05 ERA in 2007 and a 3.27 ERA in 2008, striking out more than 8 batters per nine innings and walking under 3.5. Since 2008, however, everything has gone down hill. Taking a look at the graphs of his various pitching rates. clearly shows a pitcher in decline. Delcarmen started striking out fewer hitters, walking more, and allowing more home runs. The walk rate, in particular is troubling, as it has climbed from about average (3.5 BB/9) to absolutely horrendous (5.73 BB/9), seventh worst in the AL among pitchers with 40 or more innings pitched. Really, the only thing keeping Delcarmen from being much worse than his 4.70 ERA was his .220 batting average on balls in play, instead of the average .300.

While it is a bit depressing to see the Red Sox "sell low" on a player, Delcarmen was getting worse while simultaneously getting more expensive as he was going to enter arbitration for the second time this offseason. Chris Balcom-Miller seems like a solid return for Delcarmen. Before the trade a Rockies blog had a small write up on him. I haven't been able to find a description of his stuff, which is key in projecting a pitching prospect, but he's posted very good numbers in the hitter friendly Pioneer League. His strikeout and walk numbers are very good (117 K and only 20 BB in 109 IP), but it is important to keep in mind that strikeout numbers typically drop and walk numbers typically rise as a pitcher moves up in the minors. According to one scouting report, Balcom-Miller has the upside to be a mid-rotation starter.

The other benefit is that I think this move will make the 2010 Red Sox a better team, even if their playoff hopes are pretty much dead. I figure Robert Manuel, recently named as the PawSox MVP will snag Delcarmen's roster spot. It seems that every single time I write about the 'pen, I have marvelous things to say about Manuel, but he really does deserve a shot. In 64 IP at AAA he put up a 1.68 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. He'll have some competition for innings once the rosters expand, but the Red Sox need to get a look at him and see if he's a viable major league reliever.

As I was writing this the Red Sox called up Manuel to replace Delcarmen. Now let's see how he does.

Delcarmen to DL, Sox call up Manuel

Another day, another injury. After getting lit up for a couple of games, Manny Delcarmen admitted that he's been experiencing forearm soreness. While it is too bad that he didn't come forward with his injury right away, this is actually a step in the right direction for Delcarmen, who hid an injury during his horrid second half of 2009.

To take his place, the Red Sox have called up Robert Manuel. When the Sox acquired him in December, I did a detailed write up about him. I have a lot of faith in his minor league numbers and I think he could really contribute as a 6th or 7th inning guy. Manuel has continued his success in the minors this year (1.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). Manuel doesn't have dominating stuff, but does have excellent control and strikes out enough batters to have spectacular K:BB numbers.

Something for nothing

The Red Sox recently claimed Robert Manuel off of waivers from the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners had to expose Manuel to waivers - it isn't clear whether they were moving him off of their 40 man roster, or if he was out of options, and therefore couldn't be moved from the major leagues to the minor leagues without the other teams in baseball having a crack at him.

Don't get me wrong, Manuel isn't anything special. He's a 26 year old relief prospect who I've never heard of before. He's posted excellent strikeout and walk numbers in the minor leagues (339:66 career), including a 49:16 strikeout to walk ratio in AAA this year. Generally speaking, 2:1 is all right and 3:1 is really good: Papelbon, for example had about a 3:1 ratio this year in a poor year control-wise for him. In 2008 he had a K:BB ratio of better than 9:1. Strikeout to walk ratio doesn't tell you the whole story (for an excellent example, take a look at Dave Bush's numbers sometime), but Manuel also doesn't give up a ton of hits or homeruns.

At worst, I think the Red Sox just found a 6th or 7th inning guy for free. This could give them the flexibility to deal someone like Manny Delcarmen for an improvement elsewhere. By itself, a move like this won't win a championship, snagging a useful player when the opportunity presents itself is the hallmark of a well run organization. I'm not saying that Manuel is a better baseball player than Jeremy Hermida, but I wouldn't be shocked if Manuel contributes more to the 2010 Red Sox than Hermida.

Note: I just read Peter Gammons' chat on ESPN and he mentions a potential Manny Delcarmen for Cody Ross trade, as Ross is a right handed hitting CF/RF. Ross would be a nice addition as he would give the Sox versatility in the outfield and he destroyed lefties last year.