Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Monday, November 23, 2009
Thanks to Andrew for sending me a link to this article and the updated Rule 5 information.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
As a follow up to the post on Robert Manuel, I thought I would take a look at the Red Sox prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. This is not a definitive list, as to the best of my knowledge the Sox can still move players on and off the 40 man roster to address eligible players. In order to be eligible to be drafted a player must not be on the 40 man roster and must either: spent 4 years in the minors if signed at 18 or older or have spent 5 years in the minors if signed younger than 18. The drafting team pays $40,000 to the team who initially had the prospect's rights. In order for the drafting team to keep the prospect, the player must remain on the major league (25 man) roster for the entire season. If the player is removed from the 25 man roster, then the drafting team must offer the player back to the original team for $20,000.
Most rule 5 draftees don't amount to anything, and many are returned to their original teams before the end of spring training. There are some notable exceptions: Johan Santana is easily the best player drafted in the last 10 years, although the Marlins struck gold with Dan Uggla as well. Because of the rules and requirements associated with the draft, many teams don't draft anyone. Last year no one from the Red Sox system was drafted, and the Red Sox drafted Miguel Gonzalez, who spent the entire season the DL rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Looking over the list of eligible players for the draft, the only name that really jumps out at me is Yamaico Navarro, who is the best upper level shortstop prospect in the system. Navarro is a 21 year old shortstop from the Dominican Republic; because he is eligible for the draft at such a young age he must have been a 16 year old signing for the Red Sox. His performances in the minor leagues have been uneven. In several seasons he has excelled at one level (>.900 OPS), only to struggle at a higher level (<.600 OPS). In fact, his last 5 year/league splits have either been in the .500s or .900s. When hitting well, Navarro does a bit of everything. At his best moments he's posted a slugging percentage over .500, which is very impressive for a shortstop. Even when he doesn't hit well, Navarro has shown a good batting eye. According to SoxProspects, Navarro is a good fielder and is likely able to stick at shortstop.
Because of his struggles at AA I wouldn't expect him to be picked, but thanks to the open spots on the Red Sox roster, it simply isn't worth the risk. Because Navarro is young and and a promising all around shortstop, it is conceivable a team would pick him in hopes of stashing him on the major league roster for a year, then send him down to the minors for more seasoning after 2010.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Don't get me wrong, Manuel isn't anything special. He's a 26 year old relief prospect who I've never heard of before. He's posted excellent strikeout and walk numbers in the minor leagues (339:66 career), including a 49:16 strikeout to walk ratio in AAA this year. Generally speaking, 2:1 is all right and 3:1 is really good: Papelbon, for example had about a 3:1 ratio this year in a poor year control-wise for him. In 2008 he had a K:BB ratio of better than 9:1. Strikeout to walk ratio doesn't tell you the whole story (for an excellent example, take a look at Dave Bush's numbers sometime), but Manuel also doesn't give up a ton of hits or homeruns.
At worst, I think the Red Sox just found a 6th or 7th inning guy for free. This could give them the flexibility to deal someone like Manny Delcarmen for an improvement elsewhere. By itself, a move like this won't win a championship, snagging a useful player when the opportunity presents itself is the hallmark of a well run organization. I'm not saying that Manuel is a better baseball player than Jeremy Hermida, but I wouldn't be shocked if Manuel contributes more to the 2010 Red Sox than Hermida.
Note: I just read Peter Gammons' chat on ESPN and he mentions a potential Manny Delcarmen for Cody Ross trade, as Ross is a right handed hitting CF/RF. Ross would be a nice addition as he would give the Sox versatility in the outfield and he destroyed lefties last year.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Starting at midnight tonight free agents can negotiate with any team. As of right now they can only negotiate with their former team. In a related note, Bay just rejected the 4 year, $60 million deal the Red Sox offered right after the World Series.
December 1st at midnight is the deadline to offer arbitration to players. In a lot of ways, this is really when free agency activity starts. Any team that signs a Type A or B free agent before this date automatically gives the former team compensation. This isn't a big deal for Type B free agents, but for middling type A free agents (e.g. Darren Oliver) you're giving up a first round draft pick. Players have until December 7th to accept or reject the arbitration offers.
Finally, you have the winter meetings December 7th-10th. Although any big trades will likely go down later in the offseason, you never know what can happen when you put all the general managers together. With many teams struggling to make payroll there could be some value to be had.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Everywhere I look it seems to pop up that Ryan Kalish's biggest strength is his lack of weaknesses. He makes good contact, plays good defense in centerfield, and has the tools to be a 20/20 player in the majors. Without any outstanding tools there is some downside though. If Kalish fills out too much for centerfield he may end up as a tweener with defense a little too weak for centerfield but a bat that is a little weak for right or left - think David Murphy. Between high A and AA last year Kalish his 18 homeruns and stole 22 bases in 28 attempts. The power was nice to see after a 2008 after Kalish slugged .397 in the hitter friendly California league, although the low slugging could be tied to a lingering wrist injury from 2007. Sox Prospects has him starting the season in AAA, but I could see the organization starting him in AA or AAA as the organization has shown they're willing to promote players directly from AA, although this has been more common for pitching prospects. Even without a major league callup next season the Sox will need to add Kalish to the 40 man roster, otherwise he'll be Rule 5 eligible during the offseason next year. Kalish is playing in the Arizona Fall League right now, and is hitting .306 with one home run and 4 stolen bases, but with only a .387 slugging percentage.
Reymond Fuentes was the Red Sox first round pick in this April's draft. If you've read anything about him you're probably already aware that: 1. He is Carlos Beltran's cousin 2. His workouts were supposed to be amazing. Beyond that there isn't an awful lot to know about Fuentes, an 18 year old high schooler from Puerto Rico. Depending on who you want to believe he's either 5'10" or 6'1", is extremely fast and projects to have good power. Fuentes held his own in his pro debut in the Gulf Coast rookie league, but it will take several years before the Sox really know what to expect from him. Unlike Beltran, even under the rosiest projections Fuentes is not projected to be a 30 home run hitter.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Here is his list of the top 11 players in the Red Sox system, although I won't include his full write ups for the players:
1. Ryan Westmoreland, CF
2. Casey Kelly RHP/SS
3. Josh Reddick, OF
4. Ryan Kalish, OF
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
6. Jose Iglesias, SS
7. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Reymond Fuentes, CF
11. Derrik Gibson, 2B/SS
A couple things jump out at me. First, the Red Sox have three players in their top 11 who can play center field and Reddick is a solid defender in right field. Also, Rizzo and Iglesias are superb fielders. There are no guarantees that all of these players will make it to the majors, especially not as center fielders, but the Red Sox are a team that is on the older and unathletic side of thing. That could change within a couple years. Of the 11, most are in the lower levels. Only Reddick, Tazawa, and Bowden are likely to be seen in Boston in 2010, and all have already appeared in the big leagues, albeit with limited success. Finally, Lars Anderson was dropped from first overall in 2008 to ninth in 2009, below fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo. According to Goldstein, even the optimistic scouts are no longer predicting stardom for Anderson. 2010 could be a make or break season for him, as a couple down years can quickly turn a prospect who was young for his league into someone who likely should have moved on already.
More Westmoreland and Kelly, who is likely to be switched full time to pitching this year, are a long way off, starting in low A and high A this season, respectively. Kelly is a very polished 20 year old starter with three plus pitches. He is also a shortstop and in order to be signed the Red Sox had to give him guarantees that he'd at least get a shot to make it as an everyday player. Kelly his just over .210 last season split between low A and high A, but dominated both leagues as a pitcher. Because of his advanced approach he could move through the system quickly. Kelly is playing shortstop in the Arizona Fall League and is hitting .240. A good showing in A+ and AA in 2010 would make a spot start in Boston not out of the question next year.
Westmoreland is a 19 year old centerfielder from Rhode Island. Coming into the draft he was considered nearly unsignable, as he had a full scholarship to Vanderbilt. The Red Sox drafted him in the 5th round and signed him with a $2 million bonus. Despite the large bonus, the general consensus was that his affinity for the Red Sox was important and no other team would have been able to sign him. He posted impressive numbers as a 19 year old in the New York Penn League (low A) and scouts rave about his tools. Goldstein compares him favorably to Grady Sizemore, in terms of upside. The one quesiton mark about Westmoreland is his durability. After the draft he needed minor surgery on his shoulder and his 2009 season was shortened by a broken collarbone after running into a wall.
Last year was another disappointing season for Varitek, posting a .703 OPS, which was 23rd out of 40 catchers who made 200 plate appearances. He had a career low in batting average (.209) and tied a career low in OBP (.313). There are a few reasons for hope though. In 2008 Varitek started strong, before posting one of the worst offensive months I've ever seen - an abominable .122/.205/.176 line in June of 2008. In 2009 he was actually quite good before the All Star Break (.826 OPS) and hitting 13 of his 14 home runs before slumping in the second half to a .489 OPS. Perhaps him playing less regularly will help keep his bat and legs fresh, allowing him to be productive later into the season. Of course, the addition of Victor Martinez didn't really help at all in 2009, as he posted his worst monthly OPS in August and September. Interestingly, his OPS declined every single month of the year.
His subpar bat combined with a complete inability to control the running game makes Varitek an odd option for a backup, although as a backup his .700 OPS is much easier to swallow. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I'd much rather see the Red Sox turn to Wagner, who at least is a good defender and has some upside.
Monday, November 9, 2009
The key question is how much value to you get out of an excellent center fielder if he plays nearly all his games in left field and one half of those games in Fenway Park. Although I would worry about the Red Sox ability to score runs sporting a league average offensive player in left field, Cameron would certainly help the Red Sox defense, which was a brutal 28th in the majors last year. The Mariner's "3 center fielder outfield" (both in terms of defense and hitting ability) led the AL with a .717 mark, which the Red Sox had a .679. For those unfamiliar with the statistic, defensive efficiency looks at the rate at which balls in play (any non-strikeout, non-walk, non-home run outcome) become outs. It isn't adjusted in any way.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Red Sox would net two draft picks (1st round and sandwich round) from having another team sign Jason Bay. Cameron, a type B free agent, would not require the team to forfeit any draft picks. Cameron would also give the Red Sox a tremendous amount of roster flexibility in the outfield and wouldn't require them to carry a true backup center fielder.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
First base is a really tricky position for prospects. A lot of the really good prospects start somewhere else, and get moved to first due to defensive limitations, so a minor leaguer that is already at 1B really needs to project to be a middle of the order threat in order to be a top tier prospect. Red Sox fans know that players can develop into middle of the order hitters relatively late, Kevin Youkilis is the prime example, but it is rare.
The two main prospects for the Red Sox are Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo. Coming into 2009, Lars Anderson was one of those rare, top tier 1B prospects. Baseball America pegged him as the #1 prospect for the Sox and spent most of their write-up gushing about his swing, plate discipline, make up, and power potential, thanks to his impressive .316/.426/.536 line in 133 AA at bats in 2008. To say that 2009 was a disappointment for Anderson is an understatement. Staying in AA, he managed a meager .233/.328/.345 line over 447 at bats. The drop-off stemmed from a large decline in batting average on balls in play and isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average). The batting average on balls in play could be bad luck, but combined with the drop off in isolated power it indicates that Anderson was not driving the ball with authority last year. Anderson projects to be an average 1B with the glove, so he really needs to hit to have value. It’s hard to say what happened last season- Anderson didn’t have any injury issues that I am aware of, but next season will be a very important one for him. Anderson isn’t playing any winter ball, so we’ll have to wait until next spring to get another look at him.
While Anderson had an off year, Anthony Rizzo came back strong following chemotherapy for Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. While Rizzo’s raw offensive numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as Anderson’s were in 2008, Rizzo did hit .295/.371/.420 in high A as a 19 year old, less than a year after his chemotherapy finished. Currently, Rizzo’s best offensive tools are his plate discipline and gap power to all fields. At 6’4” and 210 pounds, Rizzo likely has some filling out to do; for comparison Justin Morneau is 6’4” and 235 lbs. Beyond physical maturation, Baseball America believes that when Rizzo learns to pull the ball more he could hit 20+ home runs a season and hit with a good average and great OBP. It’s very hard to project based on A numbers, without even addressing the recovery from cancer and chemotherapy. Needless to say, Rizzo is very hard to project. Between naturally filling out and Lester’s steady improvement in velocity in the 2 years following chemotherapy, you have to wonder what Rizzo will be capable of by the time he’s 22. Rizzo is also one of the best defensive first basemen in the minors, so he can get away with being less of an offensive force, unlike Anderson, although when all is said and done you need to hit to play 1B in the majors. .
So, where does this leave the Sox? If not for Anderson, the logical place for Rizzo next season would be AA. Some people think that Rizzo, by the virtue of being two years younger than Anderson, may have passed him on the organizational depth chart. Because Rizzo has only a half a season at High A I think he’ll start the season there and Anderson will repeat AA Portland. Before Anderson’s disappointing, many were predicting that he would force his way in to the Sox lineup some time in 2010, especially if there were an injury at either corner infield position. Now it looks like Anderson will need one more year in the minors, with Rizzo needing at least two more years. The good news is that the Sox are set at first base with Kevin Youkilis under contract until 2012 (with a 2013 club option) and Casey Kotchman arbitration eligble through 2011 as a backup, so the Sox can afford to wait and see how these two prospects do next season. Of course, with Mike Lowell’s contract expiring after 2010, if Anderson has a big year next year he might be penciled in at 1B for 2011, with Youkilis sliding back to 3B.
I'm not a huge Carlos Gomez fan, as his OBP is preposterously bad (career high is .297) and he doesn't really have any power. The key to making this trade work for the Brewers is that Gomez still has upside, he was the top prospect in the Johan Santana deal after all, will be under team control for an additional 4 years (versus two for Hardy), and will only be 24 next season.
According to Tony Massarotti the Red Sox were interested in Hardy, but the Brewers requested Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard. The Sox counter off of Michael Bowden wasn't enough. The Brewers were between a rock and a hard place with no great centerfielders hitting free agency and the cost of starting pitching, but at least they've addressed one issue with the trade.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Although the Red Sox got about average production out of their third basemen and slightly above average production out of their first basemen, neither Youkilis nor Lowell are true mashers. Also, Lowell's defense has declined dramatically since he signed his 3 year, $37.5 million contract, with his UZR/150 dropping to worse than -10. That represents a win that was lost by Lowell's defense over the course of the season. Based on watching him play, Lowell's range to his left has really been limited by his injury. Whether or not he'll recover some of that range with a full offseason of rest and strengthening is unclear.
With this post I'll take a look at 4 free agent options, but won't address the most common name you'll hear floated as a solution - Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is really good (.958 OPS last year), even better when you consider his mammoth home park (1.045 OPS on the road), is only 27, and is under team control until 2011 for $10.35 million for the two seasons COMBINED. Needless to say, his addition would be massive, but expensive for the farm system.
Adrian Beltre just finished up his much maligned five year, $64 million contract with the Mariners. Despite all the negative publicity surrounding it, according to Fangraphs he earned his salary in the first 4 years of the deal. The large ballpark kept his offensive numbers down, but Beltre played spectacular defense throughout the contract. Thanks to injuries (hopefully he's learned to wear a cup at 3B) and a decline in offense, Beltre didn't earn his $12 million salary this year, but because of that he might be willing to sign for relatively cheap. Beltre is also a midrange free agent; similar players were hammered last year by the salary belt tightening across the league. Beltre would likely put up slightly worse offensive numbers than Lowell, but the massive upgrade in defense would represent a nice improvement for the Sox.
Mark DeRosa is another name that you'll likely hear a lot about, although I don't think he fits well with the Red Sox. He's either a spectacular super utility guy, a good second basemen, or a mediocre 3B. Although the Red Sox love flexibility, between his age (35) and the fact that he's coming off surgery for a wrist injury I think the Sox would be wise to pass, unless he signs for a very short term deal.
One name that caught my eye when he was cut was Chad Tracy. Unlike Beltre or DeRosa, signing Tracy wouldn't necessitate a move involving Lowell. In some ways Tracy shares some similarities with Hermida; he put up some eye popping numbers early in his career, including a .914 OPS at age 25 and a three year stretch of .800 OPS between 2005 and 2007. He has also been of limited use since then, posting average defense and below average offense, even without any kind of positional adjustments, in 2008 and 2009. Tracy does play average defense, but is mostly a 1B now. If hte Red Sox feel he could overcome his injury issues and recapture his swing from 2005 to 2007 he could be a very interesting player. I'm not sure how much room the Red Sox have for him though, given their desire to put Victor Martinez at first base semi-regularly. The Red Sox seem to value positional flexibility, and signing him would give Tito have a preposterous number of combinations to fill out 1B and 3B (7, if I'm counting correctly).
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Jose Alvarez is a 20 year old left handed pitching prospect. He has a very limited pitching track record in the minors, but put up a 1.52 ERA primarily as a starter in A ball last year and a 4.25 ERA as a reliever in high A. It looks like he is being groomed as a starter, but with a tight leash on his innings, although I'm not certain. He was listed as the Red Sox 44th best prospect by Sox Prospects, one spot ahead of Hunter Jones.
This looks like a something for nothing type situation for the Marlins. Given their payroll, and Hermida's looming raise (arbitration eligible after making $2.25 million last year) he was a candidate to be non-tendered. After a spectacular 2007 as a 23 year old (.870 OPS), Hermida has been a massive disappointment posting an OPS of .740 and .729 in 2008 and 2009 respectively. A former top prospect, and still only 25, Hermida is a bit of an offensive lottery ticket, although right now it is hard to see how he'll get regular playing time if the Red Sox sign a left fielder. He could be a fall back option for Theo, although I view him as a likely 4th outfielder for the Sox in 2010. With Drew it pays to have a second tier starter as your 4th outfielder, and the Red Sox are a team with the finances to make that happen. I wouldn't read too much into this trade Hermida is a player that has often been associated with the Red Sox in trade rumors. This may have simply been Theo taking the opportunity to buy low on a very talented, yet underperforming player who will be under team control for an additional two years.
For those that wish to be optimistic, Hermida's woes have largely been due to soft tissue injuries, so there are no chronic injuries to worry about. Also, his walk percentage and fly ball percentages ticked up this year. While it didn't translate into better performance in 2009, it could be a sign of good things to come, especially with a move to a smaller park.
For those who aren't familiar with what is a good K/9, BB/9 etc - perusing Fangraphs is useful. They what is "poor" and "good" for all the stats they graph. It is a great place to start when trying to understand unfamiliar stats.
Here is Theo's take on the trade from Baseball Prospectus Unifiltered, now with hyperlinked goodness (thanks for the link, Andrew).
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Andrew and I will be running through the Red Sox system position by position over the next month or so, highlighting the interesting prospects in the Red Sox system.
The Red Sox have a bit of an odd roster construction right now, with a total of 5 catchers on the 40 man roster. The strengths and weaknesses of Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez are likely familiar to you already. George Kottaras, has some promise, but appears to lack the contact skills to be an average hitter in the majors and Dusty Brown is defensive minded backup who hasn't been able to hit well at AAA. Finally, you have Mark Wagner, the only one of the five who hasn’t appeared in the major leagues yet. Of the three non-regular catchers, Wagner is by far the most interesting.
At 25, Wagner is not an elite prospect. His minor league career has been up at down, with a fairly regular pattern appearing. During his first stint in a league Wagner struggles. Despite being a relatively polished college player from UC Irvine, Wagner only managed a .570 OPS in his first crack at A ball. The following season he excelled in the Sally League, posting a .842 OPS before getting promoted to the Carolina League (high A) where he put up a .520 OPS in 65 at bats. The pattern continued in 2007 when he crushed A+ pitching for the entire season, followed by a disappointing .666 OPS in AA Portland as a 24 year old in 2008. At the end of the season last year there were some doubts as to the viability of Wagner as a major leaguer, but a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, followed by a great season in AA this year (.301/.410/.477) raised his stock substantially. Unsurprisingly, he did struggle in AAA for the second half of the year (.619 OPS), causing the Red Sox to leave him off the roster during September roster expansions. He’s doing his best to erase those doubts with a massive start to winter ball in the Dominican, hitting .346/.455/.615 with 2 home runs in 26 at bats.
Scouting wise, Wagner has a great defensive reputation, an excellent batting eye, and makes solid contact. Wagner’s clear weakness is his lack of power (only 6 HR in 307 AB split between AA and AAA last year); despite this fact, I think his all around skill set makes him a great backup catcher. It wouldn’t shock me if Wagner would be able to out produce Varitek as soon at next year. When taking into account Victor Martinez’ defensive limitations behind the plate, the switch makes even more sense. Given that catchers often develop offensively much later than other position players it wouldn’t be shocking for Wagner to become a second tier starter. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Wagner put up a .280/.350/.400 line next year. While a .750 OPS isn’t going to carry a team, it would have been good for 15th among catchers with 250 AB last year. In the event of an injury to Youkilis or Victor Martinez turning to Wagner might be the best offensive option short term.Luis Exposito is the other interesting catcher in the Red Sox system. In many ways, Exposito is Wagner’s opposite. Unlike Wagner, Exposito only had one year in junior college before being signed as a draft and follow pick just before the 2006 draft. He is young for his league (appeared in AA at 22, a full two years before Wagner did), is highly projectable, with the potential for 25 home run power, but he can be prone to strikeouts and does not have a great batting eye. In 2009 Exposito held his own in A+ ball, posting a .756 and hit even better during a short stint at AA. Although Exposito put up a .371 OBP in Portland this year, that was inflated by a high batting average. Prior to AA, the highest OBP of Exposito's minor league career was .332. Exposito will open next season at AA and is at least two years away from making an impact at the major league level, but he has the potential to be an all star catcher if he can learn to control the strike zone better.