Red Sox 2011 Options: 3 no brainers and a mild suprise

The Red Sox announced that they'll pick up David Ortiz' $12.5 million option for next season, as well as the option for Scott Atchison. The decision on Ortiz sounds like it was made awhile ago. It probably is an overpay, but it gives the team the team an enormous amount of flexibility next offseason, if they want to pursue a DH type such as Prince Fielder. They declined the options for Bill Hall ($9.25 million, $500,000 buyout) and Felipe Lopez. While Hall had a solid season as a super sub last year, playing every position but catcher and first base, the $9.25 million option was never really in play. It will be interesting to see if Hall can get a starting job somewhere, or if he'll decide that getting semi-regular PT all over the diamond is the way to go. Declining Lopez' option isn't a surprise either; the Red Sox picked him in late September, most likely hoping to get a compensatory draft pick out of him.

The one potential surprise in here is the Red Sox picking up Scott Atchison's option. The key thing to remember here is that the Red Sox are not necessarily expecting Atchison to be a huge contributor, but instead a solid option in the back of the bullpen. Atchison has a average strikeout rate (6.2 K/9), an average walk rate (2.85 BB/9), which unsurprisingly led to an average ERA on the season (4.50, ERA+=97, where 100 is league average). For $40,000 over the major league minimum, average is actually pretty good.

Replacing John Farrell

Although it isn't completely official yet, Red Sox owner John Henry makes it clear that current pitching coach John Farrell is heading north to Toronto to manage the Blue Jays. This is a pretty big loss, in my opinion. Despite the struggles of the rotation this year, Farrell is one of the best regarded pitching coaches in baseball and has done an excellent job developing talent in Boston (Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Bard) as well as in Cleveland, where he was the director of player development from 2001 to 2006, when stars like Victor Martinez, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee came up. His name had been mentioned for many other job openings in the past, but I guess the Toronto job was too good to pass up.

I'm not sure exactly how this will affect the Red Sox, quantifying the impact of coaches is a very tricky proposition, but I know that losing someone of Farrell's caliber isn't going to help. It'll be interesting to see if they look to someone outside of the organization. According to Peter Gammons, the Sox recognize this as a big hole and "very worried" about losing Farrell.

Congratulations Bengie Molina, World Series Champion!

The slowest of the Molina brothers, and that is saying something, is now the proud owner of a 2010 World Series ring. Just how is that possible? Bengie was traded from the Giants to the Rangers at the deadline, so since he's played on both teams, he'd receive a ring should either one win. Of course, I'm sure he'll be pulling for the Rangers, since that's the team he actually plays for at this point, but I thought it was funny that Bengie already as that coveted World Series ring locked up.

A few thoughts on the post season

I've managed to watch parts of all the ALCS games so far. Thanks to the fact I've been sick, most of them end past my bedtime (current favored diagnosis: mono!), so I can't claim to have watched every pitch, but I thought I'd weigh in with a few thoughts.

I know they're both left handed and occasionally throw a cutter, but anyone who calls CJ Wilson a mini Cliff Lee is insane. CJ Wilson led the AL in walks this year, with 93. Cliff Lee walked 0.76 batters per nine innings this season, meaning it would have taken Cliff Lee over 1,100 innings or about 5 seasons of pitching, to walk 93 batters.

This isn't the most advanced baseball analysis, but why does Ron Washington have left handed pitchers face Marcus Thames? In limited playing time this year Thames did not have an appreciable split, but over his career he's been mediocre against righties (.236/.296/.480 - note the very weak OBP) while he's hit lefties well (.264/.333/.505). Playing the splits is old school baseball, and there is no reason Washington should be ignorant about that. I know that one of those appearances was as a pinch hitter, but it doesn't take Nostradamus to predict that bringing side arming lefty is going to cause the opposing manager to turn to his lefty mashing bench bat.

The Rangers bullpen really shit the bed in game 1 after I went to bed. Needless to say, I was pretty disappointed they managed to blow a 5 run lead going into the 8th. Just how bad was it? At one point the Rangers had a win expectancy of 86.5%. It was hardly historic though. If you need a little cheering up, look back to game 5 of the 2008 ALCS. With the Red Sox trailing 7-0 and the Rays threatening to pile on with two runners on and none out in the 7th inning, the Red Sox had a win expectancy 0.07%. For those unfamiliar with the statistic, it means that based on historical games, teams in that situation game back to win the 7 times in 10,000.

It is now my bedtime, so I can't comment on anything that happened after the 6th inning of Game 3, but Cliff Lee is pretty damn impressive. Coming in to the 6th he had given up a questionable walk to Teixeira and a broken bat single to Posada. As amazing as Cliff Lee's regular season was, his numbers are even more impressive in the post season. He struck out 28 before walking a single batter and currently has a 31:1 K:BB ratio in only 22 innings. The one knock against him tonight is that he's already thrown 96 pitches in 6 IP, so he'll probably only go 7 IP tonight, but that's a minor quibble.

Guesstimating the 2011 Red Sox Pitching Staff

Looking for something more up to date on the Red Sox pitching staff? Try here for a more recent version, complete with projections.

Now that my throat is starting not to look like something out of a George C. Romero movie, I can finally make that follow up post to my lineup post from last week. As I mentioned in that post, the Red Sox pitching rotation is pretty much full at this point. Barring a trade or a release, the Red Sox have a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, and Matsusaka through the end of the 2012 season. Unlike the cheap, homegrown talent in the lineup, this is a pretty damn expensive rotation, weighing in at just under $50 million in 2011 and just over $50 million in 2012.

Having five committed starters for the next two years also doesn't leave room for rising prospects Anthony Ranaudo, Casey Kelly, or Brandon Workman to get their feet wet or find part time work for potential starters like Felix Doubront and Michael Bowden.

For the short term, I think the answer is easy - go with the five guys you're spending the big bucks on, at least for 2011. You have to bank on Lackey and Beckett to bounce back, Lester and Buchholz were the two best pitchers on the staff last year, and Dasiuke is maddening, but seems to show just enough to keep you tantalized. Plus, getting an average of 6 IP a start and a 4.69 ERA isn't horrendous out of a fifth starter. As for the fringier prospects like Doubront and Bowden, the roster set up of the Red Sox seems to dictate their usage. They're loaded with starters, and the back end of the bullpen is a disaster, so sliding them in as relievers might make the most sense. Right now, the only definite slots in the bullpen are Jon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, and Tim Wakefield as a swing man. That leaves two open spots, preferably one lefty and one righty, to be filled. To me, Bowden, a righty, and Doubront, a lefty who pitched extensively in the pen down the stretch fit those roles perfectly.

So sticking with arms on the team, I think the pitching staff should shape up something like this:

SP	Jon Lester
SP	Clay Buchholz
SP	Josh Beckett
SP	John Lackey
SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka
Swing	Tim Wakefield
CL	Jon Papelbon
SU	Daniel Bard
LH	Hideki Okajima
LH	Felix Doubront
RH	Michael Bowden

Looking outside the organization, Theo has made some noise already about going out and signing a reliever or two to shore up the team. Someone like Scott Downs would be a nice addition, but only if the Red Sox sign another Type A free agent like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth. Quite simply, a reliever isn't worth tossing away a first round pick. Bowden also is a pretty big question mark, even in the bullpen. He took a step back in 2010, but some teams are supposedly still high on him as a starter, so it wouldn't be shocking to see him dealt for other prospects, creating another job opening in the bullpen.

Best. Website. Ever.

For those of you who don't know, Adrian Beltre really doesn't like to get his head touched. Of course, his teammates decided to touch his head all the time. Some kind soul on the internet has collected all those occurrences and has created a gallery of animated gifs. The best five minutes you'll spend all day.

Hat tip to Pete Abraham for linking to it from the Globe's Extra Bases Blog.

Nifty little move

The Red Sox signed Felipe Lopez a week or so before the season ended. While he didn't make a difference in the way the season ended, although the home run against the Yankees was nice, he could pay some solid dividends down the road. You see, despite having been released by the Cardinals, Lopez is still projected to be a Type B free agent. If:

1. The Red Sox offer him arbitration and

2. Lopez signs a major league deal with another team,

then the Red Sox will snag a sandwich round pick, between the first and second rounds, in the draft. This year Anthony Ranaudo, a preseason top 10 prospect, fell to them in that spot, so the payoff for dropping a few thousand on Lopez could be huge. Of course, considering he's been run out of town by several different teams, the hard part could be getting another team to sign him to a major league deal.