Just as with the hitting statistics, I’m using a 5-4-3 weighted mean for the IP, ERA, FIP, and xFIP and am not using any kind of park effects. Depending on which stat you would like to believe (ERA, FIP, xFIP) and whether or not you’d like to believe my rather basic projection system in the first place, the Red Sox pitchers should allow between 637 and 665 runs. That would place them between 5th and 8th in the AL. None of these numbers are defense adjusted. While it would be difficult to make defensive projections with Youkilis moving to 3B for the first time in several years, Ellsbury moving back to center field from left, and Carl Crawford moving to left, but with questions about how he’ll maintain his defensive value in Fenway thanks to the Green Monster, I feel comfortable saying that the defense should be above average.
Another quick note, there are replacement level innings in the mix as well. Games where you lose on the road (and therefore don’t pitch in the bottom of the 9th) and extra innings games about come out in the wash, so I used the nice round number of 1450 innings pitched. Based on who I expected to pitch (and an additional reliever to account for the impressive bullpen depth the Red Sox have accumulated), the innings totaled up to 1344. This left 106 innings of replacement level pitching, split evenly between starting and relief pitching. The replacement level ERA was based on a study by Fangraphs (AL reliever: 4.40, AL starter: 5.63), but may be a bit high if the depressed 2010 offensive levels represent a new run scoring environment as it was written a few years ago.
Without further ado, here are your Red Sox pitchers:
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | ||
| SP 1 | Lester | 207 | 3.29 | 3.27 | 3.44 |
| SP 2 | Beckett | 167.33 | 4.51 | 3.82 | 3.53 |
| SP 3 | Buchholz | 122 | 3.49 | 4.07 | 4.18 |
| SP 4 | Lackey | 189 | 4.08 | 3.96 | 4.10 |
| SP 5 | Matsuzaka | 125.33 | 4.26 | 4.21 | 4.74 |
| Swing | Wakefield | 146.67 | 4.74 | 4.64 | 5.16 |
| Closer | Papelbon | 68 | 2.82 | 2.97 | 3.47 |
| SU | Bard | 63 | 2.53 | 3.37 | 3.47 |
| RH | Jenks | 55 | 3.7 | 3.43 | 3.31 |
| RH | Atchison | 60 | 4.29 | 4.38 | 4.01 |
| LH | Okajima | 60 | 3.56 | 4.19 | 4.55 |
| RH | Albers | 25 | 4.66 | 4.2 | 4.65 |
| RH | Wheeler | 55.67 | 3.26 | 4.35 | 4.18 |
| Fill | Replacement | 106 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 |
A few thoughts on the projections...
1. The exact identity of the left handed pitcher (or pitchers) in the bullpen isn’t a huge deal. Because they’re throwing 50-60 innings and have very similar ERAs, FIPs, and xFIPS swapping out Okajima for other pitchers doesn’t make a big difference in the overall number. The amount of variation surrounding expectations for a relievers performance is easily dwarfed by any kind of variability between pitchers in the back end of the bullpen.
2. Perhaps the biggest impact will be the depth of the bullpen arms available in AAA. Thanks to Andrew Miller’s interesting contract, which causes his option for next year to vest if he is picked up on waivers, the Red Sox can safely stash him in AAA despite the fact that he no longer has options remaining. This was possible because Miller wants to stay with the Red Sox and believe they give him the best shot at becoming a Major League caliber pitcher again.
3. Hopefully the starters can throw more than 800 innings. The weighted means penalize Buchholz for not being an established pitcher until 2010, but with an innings total of 179 last year, Buccholz should have a limit of around 200 or 210 innings, if he has one at all. Beckett and Matsuzaka are hardly sure things, but having a swing man like Wakefield who can throw 150 innings if needed is massive. However, Wakefield is getting older and can’t be relied upon quite as often as he used to. Perhaps with an eye towards a post-Wakefield ERA, the Red Sox snagged Alfredo Aceves off of waivers. While his stuff isn’t spectacular, Aceves has succeeded in both the bullpen and as a starter and could provide a nice insurance policy on Wakefield’s back. As an added bonus, the Yankees let him go and are now basically having to hold open tryouts for their 4th and 5th starting spots.
4. Overall, FIP and xFIP don’t seem to differ substantially from ERA projections, although they do for specific players. Buchholz is probably the most interesting of the bunch; he posted an ERA of 2.33, despite having underlying peripherals that indicate an ERA much closer to 4 (3.62 FIP, 4.20 xFIP). According to scouts, the stuff is still there, but in order to continue to post an ace level ERA, he’ll need to start striking out more batters. Jon Lester made a similar leap between the 2008 season where he was seemingly pitching over his head (3.32 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 6.5 K/9) to his 2009 breakout (3.41 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 9.96 K/9). It seems a bit odd talking about a breakout year when a player’s ERA gets worse, but if you saw Lester in 2008 and 2009 or 2010, the improvement is obvious. These types of breakthroughs don’t happen all that often and it would be a huge credit to the Red Sox coaches if they managed to convert two “lucky” pitchers into top tier starters in 5 years.
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