Monday, November 16, 2009
An interesting note
There are several options for the Red Sox in the outfield, and I've outlined several before. One thing I just noticed is that once you get past the top two outfielders, Bay and Holliday, who are both right handed, nearly all the other options are left handed. Normally I don't worry too much about lineup balance, but signing a left handed hitting free agent would mean that the top 5 outfielders in the Red Sox system (the free agent, Ellsbury, Drew, Hermida, and Reddick) would all be left handed. Carrying 5 left handed outfielders would kill roster flexibility, especially for a team that likes to sit Drew or Ellsbury against tough left handed starters. After Bay and Holliday the next best right handed corner outfielders are Jermaine Dye and Vlad Guerrero, if you're willing to believe he can still play the field and hit at the same time. For comparisons sake, left handed hitters such as Matsui, Damon, and Ankiel are available this offseason.
State of the System: Center Field
As I mentioned in the post on Baseball Prospectus' take on the Sox farm system, the Red Sox have an awful lot of outfield prospects with a chance to stick in center field. I'll take a closer look at three of them here - Ryan Kalish, a 21 year old who just finished up a season at AA and finally Reymond Fuentes, the Red Sox first round draft pick from April. For some thoughts on Westmoreland, see my post on BP's prospect rankings for the Red Sox.
Everywhere I look it seems to pop up that Ryan Kalish's biggest strength is his lack of weaknesses. He makes good contact, plays good defense in centerfield, and has the tools to be a 20/20 player in the majors. Without any outstanding tools there is some downside though. If Kalish fills out too much for centerfield he may end up as a tweener with defense a little too weak for centerfield but a bat that is a little weak for right or left - think David Murphy. Between high A and AA last year Kalish his 18 homeruns and stole 22 bases in 28 attempts. The power was nice to see after a 2008 after Kalish slugged .397 in the hitter friendly California league, although the low slugging could be tied to a lingering wrist injury from 2007. Sox Prospects has him starting the season in AAA, but I could see the organization starting him in AA or AAA as the organization has shown they're willing to promote players directly from AA, although this has been more common for pitching prospects. Even without a major league callup next season the Sox will need to add Kalish to the 40 man roster, otherwise he'll be Rule 5 eligible during the offseason next year. Kalish is playing in the Arizona Fall League right now, and is hitting .306 with one home run and 4 stolen bases, but with only a .387 slugging percentage.
Reymond Fuentes was the Red Sox first round pick in this April's draft. If you've read anything about him you're probably already aware that: 1. He is Carlos Beltran's cousin 2. His workouts were supposed to be amazing. Beyond that there isn't an awful lot to know about Fuentes, an 18 year old high schooler from Puerto Rico. Depending on who you want to believe he's either 5'10" or 6'1", is extremely fast and projects to have good power. Fuentes held his own in his pro debut in the Gulf Coast rookie league, but it will take several years before the Sox really know what to expect from him. Unlike Beltran, even under the rosiest projections Fuentes is not projected to be a 30 home run hitter.
Everywhere I look it seems to pop up that Ryan Kalish's biggest strength is his lack of weaknesses. He makes good contact, plays good defense in centerfield, and has the tools to be a 20/20 player in the majors. Without any outstanding tools there is some downside though. If Kalish fills out too much for centerfield he may end up as a tweener with defense a little too weak for centerfield but a bat that is a little weak for right or left - think David Murphy. Between high A and AA last year Kalish his 18 homeruns and stole 22 bases in 28 attempts. The power was nice to see after a 2008 after Kalish slugged .397 in the hitter friendly California league, although the low slugging could be tied to a lingering wrist injury from 2007. Sox Prospects has him starting the season in AAA, but I could see the organization starting him in AA or AAA as the organization has shown they're willing to promote players directly from AA, although this has been more common for pitching prospects. Even without a major league callup next season the Sox will need to add Kalish to the 40 man roster, otherwise he'll be Rule 5 eligible during the offseason next year. Kalish is playing in the Arizona Fall League right now, and is hitting .306 with one home run and 4 stolen bases, but with only a .387 slugging percentage.
Reymond Fuentes was the Red Sox first round pick in this April's draft. If you've read anything about him you're probably already aware that: 1. He is Carlos Beltran's cousin 2. His workouts were supposed to be amazing. Beyond that there isn't an awful lot to know about Fuentes, an 18 year old high schooler from Puerto Rico. Depending on who you want to believe he's either 5'10" or 6'1", is extremely fast and projects to have good power. Fuentes held his own in his pro debut in the Gulf Coast rookie league, but it will take several years before the Sox really know what to expect from him. Unlike Beltran, even under the rosiest projections Fuentes is not projected to be a 30 home run hitter.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Double dose of Red Sox on Baseball Prospectus
We get two articles about the Red Sox today from Baseball Prospectus. Kevin Goldstein's top 11 prospects and an interview with Ryan Kalish.
Here is his list of the top 11 players in the Red Sox system, although I won't include his full write ups for the players:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Ryan Westmoreland, CF
2. Casey Kelly RHP/SS
Four-Star Prospects
3. Josh Reddick, OF
4. Ryan Kalish, OF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
6. Jose Iglesias, SS
7. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Reymond Fuentes, CF
11. Derrik Gibson, 2B/SS
A couple things jump out at me. First, the Red Sox have three players in their top 11 who can play center field and Reddick is a solid defender in right field. Also, Rizzo and Iglesias are superb fielders. There are no guarantees that all of these players will make it to the majors, especially not as center fielders, but the Red Sox are a team that is on the older and unathletic side of thing. That could change within a couple years. Of the 11, most are in the lower levels. Only Reddick, Tazawa, and Bowden are likely to be seen in Boston in 2010, and all have already appeared in the big leagues, albeit with limited success. Finally, Lars Anderson was dropped from first overall in 2008 to ninth in 2009, below fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo. According to Goldstein, even the optimistic scouts are no longer predicting stardom for Anderson. 2010 could be a make or break season for him, as a couple down years can quickly turn a prospect who was young for his league into someone who likely should have moved on already.
More Westmoreland and Kelly, who is likely to be switched full time to pitching this year, are a long way off, starting in low A and high A this season, respectively. Kelly is a very polished 20 year old starter with three plus pitches. He is also a shortstop and in order to be signed the Red Sox had to give him guarantees that he'd at least get a shot to make it as an everyday player. Kelly his just over .210 last season split between low A and high A, but dominated both leagues as a pitcher. Because of his advanced approach he could move through the system quickly. Kelly is playing shortstop in the Arizona Fall League and is hitting .240. A good showing in A+ and AA in 2010 would make a spot start in Boston not out of the question next year.
Westmoreland is a 19 year old centerfielder from Rhode Island. Coming into the draft he was considered nearly unsignable, as he had a full scholarship to Vanderbilt. The Red Sox drafted him in the 5th round and signed him with a $2 million bonus. Despite the large bonus, the general consensus was that his affinity for the Red Sox was important and no other team would have been able to sign him. He posted impressive numbers as a 19 year old in the New York Penn League (low A) and scouts rave about his tools. Goldstein compares him favorably to Grady Sizemore, in terms of upside. The one quesiton mark about Westmoreland is his durability. After the draft he needed minor surgery on his shoulder and his 2009 season was shortened by a broken collarbone after running into a wall.
Here is his list of the top 11 players in the Red Sox system, although I won't include his full write ups for the players:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Ryan Westmoreland, CF
2. Casey Kelly RHP/SS
Four-Star Prospects
3. Josh Reddick, OF
4. Ryan Kalish, OF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
6. Jose Iglesias, SS
7. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Reymond Fuentes, CF
11. Derrik Gibson, 2B/SS
A couple things jump out at me. First, the Red Sox have three players in their top 11 who can play center field and Reddick is a solid defender in right field. Also, Rizzo and Iglesias are superb fielders. There are no guarantees that all of these players will make it to the majors, especially not as center fielders, but the Red Sox are a team that is on the older and unathletic side of thing. That could change within a couple years. Of the 11, most are in the lower levels. Only Reddick, Tazawa, and Bowden are likely to be seen in Boston in 2010, and all have already appeared in the big leagues, albeit with limited success. Finally, Lars Anderson was dropped from first overall in 2008 to ninth in 2009, below fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo. According to Goldstein, even the optimistic scouts are no longer predicting stardom for Anderson. 2010 could be a make or break season for him, as a couple down years can quickly turn a prospect who was young for his league into someone who likely should have moved on already.
More Westmoreland and Kelly, who is likely to be switched full time to pitching this year, are a long way off, starting in low A and high A this season, respectively. Kelly is a very polished 20 year old starter with three plus pitches. He is also a shortstop and in order to be signed the Red Sox had to give him guarantees that he'd at least get a shot to make it as an everyday player. Kelly his just over .210 last season split between low A and high A, but dominated both leagues as a pitcher. Because of his advanced approach he could move through the system quickly. Kelly is playing shortstop in the Arizona Fall League and is hitting .240. A good showing in A+ and AA in 2010 would make a spot start in Boston not out of the question next year.
Westmoreland is a 19 year old centerfielder from Rhode Island. Coming into the draft he was considered nearly unsignable, as he had a full scholarship to Vanderbilt. The Red Sox drafted him in the 5th round and signed him with a $2 million bonus. Despite the large bonus, the general consensus was that his affinity for the Red Sox was important and no other team would have been able to sign him. He posted impressive numbers as a 19 year old in the New York Penn League (low A) and scouts rave about his tools. Goldstein compares him favorably to Grady Sizemore, in terms of upside. The one quesiton mark about Westmoreland is his durability. After the draft he needed minor surgery on his shoulder and his 2009 season was shortened by a broken collarbone after running into a wall.
Varitek exercises player option
After the Red Sox declined the $5 million player option for Jason Varitek on November 9th, Varitek picked up his player option last night. The option is for $3 million and includes $2 of incentives for games played, although, with the addition of Victor Martinez, Varitek is unlikely to even meet the 80 games started incentive.
Last year was another disappointing season for Varitek, posting a .703 OPS, which was 23rd out of 40 catchers who made 200 plate appearances. He had a career low in batting average (.209) and tied a career low in OBP (.313). There are a few reasons for hope though. In 2008 Varitek started strong, before posting one of the worst offensive months I've ever seen - an abominable .122/.205/.176 line in June of 2008. In 2009 he was actually quite good before the All Star Break (.826 OPS) and hitting 13 of his 14 home runs before slumping in the second half to a .489 OPS. Perhaps him playing less regularly will help keep his bat and legs fresh, allowing him to be productive later into the season. Of course, the addition of Victor Martinez didn't really help at all in 2009, as he posted his worst monthly OPS in August and September. Interestingly, his OPS declined every single month of the year.
His subpar bat combined with a complete inability to control the running game makes Varitek an odd option for a backup, although as a backup his .700 OPS is much easier to swallow. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I'd much rather see the Red Sox turn to Wagner, who at least is a good defender and has some upside.
Last year was another disappointing season for Varitek, posting a .703 OPS, which was 23rd out of 40 catchers who made 200 plate appearances. He had a career low in batting average (.209) and tied a career low in OBP (.313). There are a few reasons for hope though. In 2008 Varitek started strong, before posting one of the worst offensive months I've ever seen - an abominable .122/.205/.176 line in June of 2008. In 2009 he was actually quite good before the All Star Break (.826 OPS) and hitting 13 of his 14 home runs before slumping in the second half to a .489 OPS. Perhaps him playing less regularly will help keep his bat and legs fresh, allowing him to be productive later into the season. Of course, the addition of Victor Martinez didn't really help at all in 2009, as he posted his worst monthly OPS in August and September. Interestingly, his OPS declined every single month of the year.
His subpar bat combined with a complete inability to control the running game makes Varitek an odd option for a backup, although as a backup his .700 OPS is much easier to swallow. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I'd much rather see the Red Sox turn to Wagner, who at least is a good defender and has some upside.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Another option at left field?
Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs makes an interesting case for a replacement in left field for Jason Bay. One that would be cheaper, just as valuable, and would not require a long term commitment. His new left fielder for the Red Sox? Mike Cameron.
The key question is how much value to you get out of an excellent center fielder if he plays nearly all his games in left field and one half of those games in Fenway Park. Although I would worry about the Red Sox ability to score runs sporting a league average offensive player in left field, Cameron would certainly help the Red Sox defense, which was a brutal 28th in the majors last year. The Mariner's "3 center fielder outfield" (both in terms of defense and hitting ability) led the AL with a .717 mark, which the Red Sox had a .679. For those unfamiliar with the statistic, defensive efficiency looks at the rate at which balls in play (any non-strikeout, non-walk, non-home run outcome) become outs. It isn't adjusted in any way.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Red Sox would net two draft picks (1st round and sandwich round) from having another team sign Jason Bay. Cameron, a type B free agent, would not require the team to forfeit any draft picks. Cameron would also give the Red Sox a tremendous amount of roster flexibility in the outfield and wouldn't require them to carry a true backup center fielder.
The key question is how much value to you get out of an excellent center fielder if he plays nearly all his games in left field and one half of those games in Fenway Park. Although I would worry about the Red Sox ability to score runs sporting a league average offensive player in left field, Cameron would certainly help the Red Sox defense, which was a brutal 28th in the majors last year. The Mariner's "3 center fielder outfield" (both in terms of defense and hitting ability) led the AL with a .717 mark, which the Red Sox had a .679. For those unfamiliar with the statistic, defensive efficiency looks at the rate at which balls in play (any non-strikeout, non-walk, non-home run outcome) become outs. It isn't adjusted in any way.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Red Sox would net two draft picks (1st round and sandwich round) from having another team sign Jason Bay. Cameron, a type B free agent, would not require the team to forfeit any draft picks. Cameron would also give the Red Sox a tremendous amount of roster flexibility in the outfield and wouldn't require them to carry a true backup center fielder.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
State of the System: First Base
Note: Andrew did all the research for this piece and most of the writing.
First base is a really tricky position for prospects. A lot of the really good prospects start somewhere else, and get moved to first due to defensive limitations, so a minor leaguer that is already at 1B really needs to project to be a middle of the order threat in order to be a top tier prospect. Red Sox fans know that players can develop into middle of the order hitters relatively late, Kevin Youkilis is the prime example, but it is rare.
The two main prospects for the Red Sox are Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo. Coming into 2009, Lars Anderson was one of those rare, top tier 1B prospects. Baseball America pegged him as the #1 prospect for the Sox and spent most of their write-up gushing about his swing, plate discipline, make up, and power potential, thanks to his impressive .316/.426/.536 line in 133 AA at bats in 2008. To say that 2009 was a disappointment for Anderson is an understatement. Staying in AA, he managed a meager .233/.328/.345 line over 447 at bats. The drop-off stemmed from a large decline in batting average on balls in play and isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average). The batting average on balls in play could be bad luck, but combined with the drop off in isolated power it indicates that Anderson was not driving the ball with authority last year. Anderson projects to be an average 1B with the glove, so he really needs to hit to have value. It’s hard to say what happened last season- Anderson didn’t have any injury issues that I am aware of, but next season will be a very important one for him. Anderson isn’t playing any winter ball, so we’ll have to wait until next spring to get another look at him.
While Anderson had an off year, Anthony Rizzo came back strong following chemotherapy for Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. While Rizzo’s raw offensive numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as Anderson’s were in 2008, Rizzo did hit .295/.371/.420 in high A as a 19 year old, less than a year after his chemotherapy finished. Currently, Rizzo’s best offensive tools are his plate discipline and gap power to all fields. At 6’4” and 210 pounds, Rizzo likely has some filling out to do; for comparison Justin Morneau is 6’4” and 235 lbs. Beyond physical maturation, Baseball America believes that when Rizzo learns to pull the ball more he could hit 20+ home runs a season and hit with a good average and great OBP. It’s very hard to project based on A numbers, without even addressing the recovery from cancer and chemotherapy. Needless to say, Rizzo is very hard to project. Between naturally filling out and Lester’s steady improvement in velocity in the 2 years following chemotherapy, you have to wonder what Rizzo will be capable of by the time he’s 22. Rizzo is also one of the best defensive first basemen in the minors, so he can get away with being less of an offensive force, unlike Anderson, although when all is said and done you need to hit to play 1B in the majors. .
So, where does this leave the Sox? If not for Anderson, the logical place for Rizzo next season would be AA. Some people think that Rizzo, by the virtue of being two years younger than Anderson, may have passed him on the organizational depth chart. Because Rizzo has only a half a season at High A I think he’ll start the season there and Anderson will repeat AA Portland. Before Anderson’s disappointing, many were predicting that he would force his way in to the Sox lineup some time in 2010, especially if there were an injury at either corner infield position. Now it looks like Anderson will need one more year in the minors, with Rizzo needing at least two more years. The good news is that the Sox are set at first base with Kevin Youkilis under contract until 2012 (with a 2013 club option) and Casey Kotchman arbitration eligble through 2011 as a backup, so the Sox can afford to wait and see how these two prospects do next season. Of course, with Mike Lowell’s contract expiring after 2010, if Anderson has a big year next year he might be penciled in at 1B for 2011, with Youkilis sliding back to 3B.
First base is a really tricky position for prospects. A lot of the really good prospects start somewhere else, and get moved to first due to defensive limitations, so a minor leaguer that is already at 1B really needs to project to be a middle of the order threat in order to be a top tier prospect. Red Sox fans know that players can develop into middle of the order hitters relatively late, Kevin Youkilis is the prime example, but it is rare.
The two main prospects for the Red Sox are Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo. Coming into 2009, Lars Anderson was one of those rare, top tier 1B prospects. Baseball America pegged him as the #1 prospect for the Sox and spent most of their write-up gushing about his swing, plate discipline, make up, and power potential, thanks to his impressive .316/.426/.536 line in 133 AA at bats in 2008. To say that 2009 was a disappointment for Anderson is an understatement. Staying in AA, he managed a meager .233/.328/.345 line over 447 at bats. The drop-off stemmed from a large decline in batting average on balls in play and isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average). The batting average on balls in play could be bad luck, but combined with the drop off in isolated power it indicates that Anderson was not driving the ball with authority last year. Anderson projects to be an average 1B with the glove, so he really needs to hit to have value. It’s hard to say what happened last season- Anderson didn’t have any injury issues that I am aware of, but next season will be a very important one for him. Anderson isn’t playing any winter ball, so we’ll have to wait until next spring to get another look at him.
While Anderson had an off year, Anthony Rizzo came back strong following chemotherapy for Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. While Rizzo’s raw offensive numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as Anderson’s were in 2008, Rizzo did hit .295/.371/.420 in high A as a 19 year old, less than a year after his chemotherapy finished. Currently, Rizzo’s best offensive tools are his plate discipline and gap power to all fields. At 6’4” and 210 pounds, Rizzo likely has some filling out to do; for comparison Justin Morneau is 6’4” and 235 lbs. Beyond physical maturation, Baseball America believes that when Rizzo learns to pull the ball more he could hit 20+ home runs a season and hit with a good average and great OBP. It’s very hard to project based on A numbers, without even addressing the recovery from cancer and chemotherapy. Needless to say, Rizzo is very hard to project. Between naturally filling out and Lester’s steady improvement in velocity in the 2 years following chemotherapy, you have to wonder what Rizzo will be capable of by the time he’s 22. Rizzo is also one of the best defensive first basemen in the minors, so he can get away with being less of an offensive force, unlike Anderson, although when all is said and done you need to hit to play 1B in the majors. .
So, where does this leave the Sox? If not for Anderson, the logical place for Rizzo next season would be AA. Some people think that Rizzo, by the virtue of being two years younger than Anderson, may have passed him on the organizational depth chart. Because Rizzo has only a half a season at High A I think he’ll start the season there and Anderson will repeat AA Portland. Before Anderson’s disappointing, many were predicting that he would force his way in to the Sox lineup some time in 2010, especially if there were an injury at either corner infield position. Now it looks like Anderson will need one more year in the minors, with Rizzo needing at least two more years. The good news is that the Sox are set at first base with Kevin Youkilis under contract until 2012 (with a 2013 club option) and Casey Kotchman arbitration eligble through 2011 as a backup, so the Sox can afford to wait and see how these two prospects do next season. Of course, with Mike Lowell’s contract expiring after 2010, if Anderson has a big year next year he might be penciled in at 1B for 2011, with Youkilis sliding back to 3B.
Scratch yet another idea
So the Red Sox won't be trading for JJ Hardy, despite my advice. Instead Hardy is headed to Minnesota in exchange for Carlos Gomez. I think Minnesota won this trade, as Hardy is a much better offensive player and they're both exceptional defenders. That said, it does make a lot of sense for both teams - Gomez was clearly the odd man out down the stretch for the Twins this year and shotstop has been a problem for several years. The Brewers needed a starting centerfielder with Mike Cameron slated to leave as a free agent and JJ Hardy was expendable (and expensive) thanks to the emergence of Alcides Escobar. The general consensus is that the Brewers will use the money they've freed up to pursue starting pitching.
I'm not a huge Carlos Gomez fan, as his OBP is preposterously bad (career high is .297) and he doesn't really have any power. The key to making this trade work for the Brewers is that Gomez still has upside, he was the top prospect in the Johan Santana deal after all, will be under team control for an additional 4 years (versus two for Hardy), and will only be 24 next season.
According to Tony Massarotti the Red Sox were interested in Hardy, but the Brewers requested Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard. The Sox counter off of Michael Bowden wasn't enough. The Brewers were between a rock and a hard place with no great centerfielders hitting free agency and the cost of starting pitching, but at least they've addressed one issue with the trade.
I'm not a huge Carlos Gomez fan, as his OBP is preposterously bad (career high is .297) and he doesn't really have any power. The key to making this trade work for the Brewers is that Gomez still has upside, he was the top prospect in the Johan Santana deal after all, will be under team control for an additional 4 years (versus two for Hardy), and will only be 24 next season.
According to Tony Massarotti the Red Sox were interested in Hardy, but the Brewers requested Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard. The Sox counter off of Michael Bowden wasn't enough. The Brewers were between a rock and a hard place with no great centerfielders hitting free agency and the cost of starting pitching, but at least they've addressed one issue with the trade.
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