Another option at left field?

Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs makes an interesting case for a replacement in left field for Jason Bay. One that would be cheaper, just as valuable, and would not require a long term commitment. His new left fielder for the Red Sox? Mike Cameron.

The key question is how much value to you get out of an excellent center fielder if he plays nearly all his games in left field and one half of those games in Fenway Park. Although I would worry about the Red Sox ability to score runs sporting a league average offensive player in left field, Cameron would certainly help the Red Sox defense, which was a brutal 28th in the majors last year. The Mariner's "3 center fielder outfield" (both in terms of defense and hitting ability) led the AL with a .717 mark, which the Red Sox had a .679. For those unfamiliar with the statistic, defensive efficiency looks at the rate at which balls in play (any non-strikeout, non-walk, non-home run outcome) become outs. It isn't adjusted in any way.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Red Sox would net two draft picks (1st round and sandwich round) from having another team sign Jason Bay. Cameron, a type B free agent, would not require the team to forfeit any draft picks. Cameron would also give the Red Sox a tremendous amount of roster flexibility in the outfield and wouldn't require them to carry a true backup center fielder.

Improving the 2010 Red Sox: 1B/3B

Now that I'm done with my exam and my grant proposal I can do the things that are really important, like make wild speculation about the Red Sox.

Although the Red Sox got about average production out of their third basemen and slightly above average production out of their first basemen, neither Youkilis nor Lowell are true mashers. Also, Lowell's defense has declined dramatically since he signed his 3 year, $37.5 million contract, with his UZR/150 dropping to worse than -10. That represents a win that was lost by Lowell's defense over the course of the season. Based on watching him play, Lowell's range to his left has really been limited by his injury. Whether or not he'll recover some of that range with a full offseason of rest and strengthening is unclear.

With this post I'll take a look at 4 free agent options, but won't address the most common name you'll hear floated as a solution - Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is really good (.958 OPS last year), even better when you consider his mammoth home park (1.045 OPS on the road), is only 27, and is under team control until 2011 for $10.35 million for the two seasons COMBINED. Needless to say, his addition would be massive, but expensive for the farm system.

Adrian Beltre just finished up his much maligned five year, $64 million contract with the Mariners. Despite all the negative publicity surrounding it, according to Fangraphs he earned his salary in the first 4 years of the deal. The large ballpark kept his offensive numbers down, but Beltre played spectacular defense throughout the contract. Thanks to injuries (hopefully he's learned to wear a cup at 3B) and a decline in offense, Beltre didn't earn his $12 million salary this year, but because of that he might be willing to sign for relatively cheap. Beltre is also a midrange free agent; similar players were hammered last year by the salary belt tightening across the league. Beltre would likely put up slightly worse offensive numbers than Lowell, but the massive upgrade in defense would represent a nice improvement for the Sox.

Mark DeRosa is another name that you'll likely hear a lot about, although I don't think he fits well with the Red Sox. He's either a spectacular super utility guy, a good second basemen, or a mediocre 3B. Although the Red Sox love flexibility, between his age (35) and the fact that he's coming off surgery for a wrist injury I think the Sox would be wise to pass, unless he signs for a very short term deal.

One name that caught my eye when he was cut was Chad Tracy. Unlike Beltre or DeRosa, signing Tracy wouldn't necessitate a move involving Lowell. In some ways Tracy shares some similarities with Hermida; he put up some eye popping numbers early in his career, including a .914 OPS at age 25 and a three year stretch of .800 OPS between 2005 and 2007. He has also been of limited use since then, posting average defense and below average offense, even without any kind of positional adjustments, in 2008 and 2009. Tracy does play average defense, but is mostly a 1B now. If hte Red Sox feel he could overcome his injury issues and recapture his swing from 2005 to 2007 he could be a very interesting player. I'm not sure how much room the Red Sox have for him though, given their desire to put Victor Martinez at first base semi-regularly. The Red Sox seem to value positional flexibility, and signing him would give Tito have a preposterous number of combinations to fill out 1B and 3B (7, if I'm counting correctly).

Improving the 2010 Red Sox: Shortstop

Shortstop has been an issue for the Red Sox for several years. It seems that everyone who writes about the topic is required by law to mention the fact that since trading Nomar Garciaparra in 2004 the Sox have had a different starting shortstop every single opening day since then. Although Theo has stated that he thinks that Jed Lowrie still could be the shortstop of the future, I think the Sox need to explore other options.

One option would be to hang on to Alex Gonzalez, although a think a $6 million option is a bit steep. UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating - generally considered to be the best defensive metric available. UZR/150 translates a players fielding value to a rate stat, so it can be compared between players with different amount of playing time) supports the idea that Gonzalez is an above average shortstop, but saving 8.3 runs with the glove doesn't make up for the damage he would do to the lineup if he repeated his 63 OPS+. In a lineup with question marks at 3B and DH I don't think the Red Sox can afford to put such a weak bat in the lineup. The free agent market is a bit thin at shortstop, with Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, and Orlando Cabrera. All three players are Type A free agents, however Orlando Cabrera cannot be offered arbitration, so no draft pick would need to be forfeited to sign him. If either Tejada or Scutaro receive arbitration offers I don't think they're worth giving up a potentially valuable draft pick (thanks for the links Andrew). I won't get into any of them too in depth - Tejada bounced back nicely from a poor offensive year in 2008, although his glove is suspect at shortstop. Scutaro is a potentially useful utility infielder, but betting on a 33 year old coming off a career year is not a good way to run a team - just ask the Angels about Gary Matthews Jr. sometime. The time to sign Orlando Cabrera was probably 2004; after signing the 4 year, $32 million contract with the Angels he went on to provide $53.2 million worth of value, out earning his salary every single year. However, in 2009 he was only 0.7 wins above replacement and was below average offensively and defensively. Like Tejada, Cabrera is also 35.

The much more interesting candidates are trade possibilities. The Red Sox are looking to get younger and more athletic, and you just don't see players hit free agency before 30 very often. JJ Hardy, Stephen Drew, and Yunel Escobar have all been mentioned as potential trade targets. Below are their statistics from 2009, as well as mean statistics for 2007-2009.

2009 Statistics for Trade Candidates

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	UZR
Stephen Drew	0.261	0.32	0.428	0.748	90	2.8
Yunel Escobar	0.299	0.377	0.436	0.812	115	-2.3
JJ Hardy	0.229	0.302	0.357	0.659	74	6.1

2007-2009 Means for Trade Candidates

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	UZR
Stephen Drew	0.263	0.322	0.433	0.756	91	-6.3
Yunel Escobar	0.304	0.376	0.429	0.805	112	-0.5
JJ Hardy	0.263	0.323	0.433	0.755	96	9.9

JJ Hardy is expendable in Milwaukee now that Alcides Escobar is the starting shortstop. After a very good 2007 and 2008, Hardy fell apart, posting a .659 OPS. Hardy is also an excellent fielder. Thanks to a demotion for 2 weeks this summer, Hardy is now slated to be a free agent after the 2011 season, instead of 2010.

Stephen Drew is also a trade candidate for the cost cutting Arizona Diamondbacks, as he is about to enter arbitration for the first time and is under contract for the next three years. Drew recovered from a poor 2007 (.683 OPS) with a spectacular 2008 (.835), leading many to believe he was ready to approach superstar levels. Given the expectations, his 2009 was labeled a disappointment as his offensive production dropped across the board. Still, according to valuations done by Fangraphs, Drew was worth nearly as much in 2009 as 2008, mostly due to much improved defense. If Drew were to combine his offense from 2008 and his defense from 2009 he could be a real force in 2010. Of course, Red Sox fans made these same arguments regarding the left/right splits for Coco Crisp in 2006.

I've seen Yunel Escobar's name pop up a few different places, although I'm not sure how much faith I put in his inclusion here. Escobar is a player who doesn't have many faults - he's a solid contact hitter with a career .301 average. He has a very good eye, especially for a player who strikes out as infrequently as he does. Escobar also plays solid, if unspectacular defense. To top it all off, he is under club control for another 4 years, including the 2010 season at the bargain price of about $400,000. In short, I have no idea why the Braves would want to trade him away. While he lacks the ceiling of a JJ Hardy or a Stephen Drew, Escobar is as good a bet as any to outproduce both of them over the next two years.

Assuming an equal cost, I'd probably rank the three players Escobar, Drew, then Hardy; this is primarily due to service time. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, this list is the opposite of what I would expect each player to cost in a trade. However, it is still worth floating a few trade ideas to the Braves in particular to see if they undervalue the unspectacular, yet well rounded Escobar. Any thoughts on players I've overlooked? Who do you think would be the best value for 2010 and beyond?

Improving the 2009 Red Sox: Left Field

Because they're going to be constantly compared this winter, I think it makes sense to discuss Matt Holliday and Jason Bay together. Although many analysts have said that the Red Sox should offer Holliday and Bay the same contract and go with whomever signs first, I think Holliday is clearly the top position player in this years free agent crop. Holliday has several advantages over Bay.

First off, he is 18 months younger than Bay. Although this won't make much of a difference for 2010 or perhaps even 2011 both players will command long term contracts. Obviously if you have to sign Holliday to a 6 year deal, but Bay is available for only 4 that changes things a bit, but I think a west coast team may dangle 5 years for Bay. Also, Jason Bay has the dreaded "old player" skill set. Essentially, folks much smarter than I am have shown that players who rely on walks and power can decline precipitously. There are always exceptions, but the declines can be massive and abrupt. David Ortiz and Travis Hafner are two examples, and writers at USS Mariner have made comparisons between Bay and Richie Sexson just before Richie signed his massive deal 4 year, $50 million deal with the Mariners. Although the parallels aren't perfect, I think Sexson's size had a lot to do with his injury issues and he was coming off a season where he only managed to play 24 games, it is a bit ominous.

Finally, despite the horrendous play that cost the Cardinals a playoff game, Matt Holliday is a much better defender than Bay. With the exception of 2006, Holliday has been an above average left fielder for his entire career and posted 3.2 UZR/150 this season. Bay, on the other hand, is viewed as a well below average outfielder by UZR (-8.7/150, a substantial improvement from 2008's -18.2/150).

To top it all off, if Bay signs with another team the Red Sox will receive a first round draft pick, as he is a type A free agent. While all the other options I've outlined in left field are also type A free agents, depending on who signs Bay the Sox could actually move up in the first round. Because of the reasons I've outlined above, if the Sox want to spend the money on a top shelf left fielder this offseason, Holliday is the obvious choice. Holliday and Bay have produced similar value with the bat, but thanks to the large discrepancy in defense Holliday has "outearned" Bay $53.4 million to $28.5 million, according to Fangraphs valuations of marginal wins.

If the Red Sox do decide that neither of the top outfielders is worth it, I believe that Bobby Abreu is a solid fall back option. Abreu is a free agent after the season, and is coming off an excellent 2009 where he played for a mere $5 million. If you've watched any Angels playoff baseball, there is no doubt this fact has been beaten into your brain already. Abreu overplayed his hand last offseason, turning down a 2 year, $18 million deal with the Rays early in the offseason before settling with the Angels. Most of the concern was due to his horrid defensive play (-25.3 UZR/150) and declining offensive skills. Although Abreu hasn't been a great defender this year a move from right field to left wouldn't hurt, especially in Fenway. Abreu's biggest problem has always been an inability to move back on a ball; with the Green Monster covering him behind, that shouldn't be nearly as much of an issue. Despite being 35, Abreu also stole 30 bases, drove in over 100 runs, nearly 100 runs scored, all to go with a 115 OPS+ . Abreu recently turned down a two year, $16 million contract extension, which was similar to the offer he refused from Tampa Bay last offseason. Should things not work out with the Angels he could be a cheap, short term solution in left field. If the Sox really think they're not going to contend until 2012 or aren't willing to pony up the years for Bay or Holliday (I don't think the money is the issue) this wouldn't be a shocking move. However, Abreu would also require giving up a first round draft pick. For a Holliday type player that seems reasonable, but I'm not sure Theo is willing to give up a draft pick for a short term player.

Another name that has been frequently mentioned is Brad Hawpe. Although the Rockies recently announced that they don't need or want to trade Hawpe, he clearly was the odd man out in the outfield rotation down the stretch and during the playoffs. Hawpe swings a very good bat (.285/.394/.519) which isn't substantially inflated by Coors Field, as he posted very similar numbers on the road (.890 OPS) and at home (.917 OPS). The problem with Hawpe is that the stat heads and the scouts agree - he's an absolute butcher in the field. He posted a -19.5 UZR/150 this season, which, while terrible, was actually a massive improvement from 2008's -46.6. While a move from right field to left field would help, as would the Green Monster, I'm not sure how Hawpe would fit into the Red Sox' plan to hang on to their upcoming talent and try and improve their below average defense. Unlike Abreu, Hawpe would require giving up prospects to acquire.

Overall, I think the Red Sox should take a run at Matt Holliday. Given his age and all around skill set I don't think a 6 year, $90 million contract is out of the question. With Jason Bay, anything beyond a 4 year deal makes me very nervous. A 2011 Red Sox team centered around a marginally effective David Ortiz, a 33 year old Jason Bay, and a 32 year old Kevin Youkilis scares the hell out of me.