The 2010 Red Sox Staff

After taking a look at what the projections show for the lineup, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at some very basic projections for the rotation. As with the hitting projections I'm using 3 year weighted means (2010 projection = (2007 stats + 2*2008 stats + 3* 2009 stats)/6). A couple minor differences though. For starting pitchers who split time between the majors and minors due to inexperience or performance, I've added the minor league innings pitched numbers to the season totals. All other stats are only from the majors. I've also used FIP, fielding independent pitching, in place of ERA. FIP is calculated based on the number of strikeouts, walks, and home runs a pitcher gives up and is one of the many useful statistics available from Fangraphs. It is more stable than ERA and I believe it is a better predictor of future performance. Without further ado, your 2010 Red Sox pitching staff..

		K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	FIP	IP
SP1	Lester	8.34	3.09	2.80	0.88	1.28	3.66	197.4
SP2	Beckett	8.63	2.05	4.31	0.97	1.18	3.41	197.7
SP3	Lackey	7.13	2.28	3.14	1.03	1.25	3.97	179.9
SP4	Buchholz	7.63	4.04	1.90	1.07	1.45	4.41	155.0
SP5	Matsuzaka	8.33	4.55	1.87	1.16	1.60	4.59	121.3
Swing	Wakefield	5.31	3.24	1.66	1.00	1.34	4.68	156.5

CL	Papelbon	10.52	2.32	5.73	0.63	1.02	2.60	66.8
SU	Bard	11.49	4.01	2.86	0.91	1.28	3.38	49.3
RP	Delcarmen	7.63	4.28	1.90	0.72	1.36	4.06	61.9
RP	Ramirez	7.59	3.88	1.99	0.71	1.34	3.88	66.2
RP	Okajima	8.18	3.03	2.75	1.01	1.18	3.86	62.7
	Replacement	-	-	-	-	-	5.50	143.3

I've used what I think will be the opening day roster, although all the innings were not accounted for. In order to make sure the Sox have enough innings, and to factor in the performance cost of fill in players, I've added in about 140 innings of 5.25 ERA. The aggregate numbers for the pitching staff are pretty impressive, and are better across the board than the 2009 staff:

	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	FIP	IP
2009 Actual	7.71	3.32	2.32	-	-	4.35	1436.67
2010 Projected	7.92	3.18	2.81	0.95	1.31	4.09	1458.0

Standard ERA was used for the actual 2009 stats however, making the 2009 staff seem worse than it really was, as the Red Sox had one of the worst defensive teams in the majors last year. The lineup reshuffling should greatly improve the defense though. Also, as you can see, the walk and strikeout rates are projected to be slightly better. Without much context, these numbers are hard to gauge.

	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	ERA
2009 AL Ranks	2	7	1	7
2010 Proj. AL Ranks	1	3	1	2

The 2010 projected AL rankings are where my 2010 projections would rank relative to the 2009 statistics. As you can see, the 2009 Red Sox pitching staff was a great strikeout staff and the 2010 staff is projected to be even better. Based on FIP, the Red Sox should allow 663 earned runs. Assuming that they give up a proportion of earned runs : runs similar to 2009 AL averages, the staff would give up a total of 716 runs.

Based on my admittedly rosy lineup analysis of 926 runs scored, that would make the Red Sox a 101 win team, using the Pythagorean wins formula created by Bill James. With the more conservative estimate of having the Red Sox match last year's offensive production (872 runs), that would still make the Red Sox an expected 97 win team. I doubt that even this information would get Dan Shaughnessy to stop writing about this ridiculous "bridge" year though.