A little foresight saves the Red Sox a bundle

At the start of 2010 it looked like four massive stars at first base would be hitting the market - Adrian Gonzalez, then on the Padres, Albert Pujols from the Cardinals, Ryan Howard of the Phillies, and Prince Fielder from the Brewers.  After the massive bidding war between the Red Sox and Yankees for Mark Teixeira, which led to his 8 year, $180 million contract, I'm sure the agents for all four were looking forward to their massive payout.  A funny thing happened on the way to free agency, though.  In April of 2010, Howard re-upped with the Phillies a full two years before hitting free agency, with a five year, $125 million deal.  In December of 2010, Adrian Gonzalez was traded from the Padres to the Red Sox.  Although he officially agreed to his 7 year, $154 million extension in April, of the following season, the general consensus was that the extension had been agreed upon, but was not officially completed until the following April because of luxury tax implications.  Finally, both Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols made it to free agency. The Angels went hard after Pujols, signing him to his massive contract, the second largest ever signed, in early December, while Prince Fielder had to wait until just this week for bad luck for Victor Martinez, who tore his ACL, opening up a spot in the Tigers lineup at DH.

The Yankees are the AL East Favorites

In one day the Yankees turned a very quiet offseason into one that addressed their biggest weakness, by trading for Mariners starting pitcher Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda.  While the Yankees got by last year with major contributions from Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Ivan Nova, and at least a lot of innings from AJ Burnett, if nothing else, none of those three could really be considered a real #2 or #3 starter behind Sabathia.

The Red Sox play the waiting game

Right now there are three solid starters on the free agent market - Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, and Roy Oswalt.  According to ESPN's Keith Law, they are the 11th, 13th, and 22nd best free agents coming in to this offseason, and the 2nd, 4th, and 6th best starting pitching free agents, not counting Yu Darvish, who had to go through the posting system.  Coming in to the offseason, Jackson was looking for $15 million per year over five years, Kuroda for $15 million for one, and Oswalt for $8 for one.  Quite simply, the market has not been there for any of them, and now, according to ESPN's Buster Olney, the price for all three has dropped substantially, to the point where even Jackson maybe considering a one year deal.

The Red Sox offseason so far

Ben Cherington had his work cut out for him this offseason, with regard to the pitching staff.  Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz were locks for the rotation, but beyond that very few pitchers had a set role.  With the trades for Mark Melancon and Andrew Bailey, the Red Sox pitching staff is starting to take shape.  We're also getting a good idea of how Cherington will operate as a GM, with his willingness to wheel and deal, but not with the top prospects.

1. Daniel Bard will be given every opportunity to start.  I am still not convinced this is the best course of action, but you don't trade for two late inning relievers if you're keeping Bard in the pen and have two gaping holes in the rotation.  Given Bard's issues with repeating his delivery, which has led to some terrifying walk rates in the minors and rough patches in the majors, his complete lack of success as a starting pitcher at the professional level, and his shallow repertoire (93% of the time he throws a fastball or slider, and his third pitch, a change up, is average at best), this seems like a disaster in the making, but the Red Sox seem committed to it.  Getting 200 innings out of a pitcher rather than 60 is a no brainer, assuming the performance is remotely similar, but I'm not convinced that Bard will stick in the rotation.  Even if he does, it wouldn't shock me to see the Red Sox go some form of a six man rotation in June when Matsuzaka comes back from Tommy John surgery.

Why the Red Sox should not hire Bobby Valentine

The man once put on a fake mustache and sunglasses to sneak back into the dugout after being ejected.  Somehow, I don't think a man who thinks that is a good idea is cut out for a high stress job like the Red Sox manager.

A minor coup

The player's association and the owners unofficially agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement today.  Besides the fact that we can revel in the fact that baseball got it done well before the NBA managed to get their shit together, there is an interesting tidbit in the change of the compensation process for free agents.

First of all, there are now caps on draft spending and international spending on free agents using a luxury tax for teams that overspend.  In some ways, this seems like a penalty to the teams that do poorly; I doubt that agents of #1 prospects like Strasburg or Harper will be lowering their demands, so on top of a substantial payday, these teams could be paying into the commissioner's luxury tax pool.

More interestingly, the Elias rankings will be no longer used, starting in the 2012 offseason.  Instead, teams will get compensation picks for players who depart in free agency if the team makes a qualifying offer of $12 million.  This will greatly increase the value of good, but not great, free agents who would otherwise cost a draft pick to sign.

For this season, type A free agent relievers will no longer cost a draft pick to sign.  However, the rule will not be applied retroactively.  That means the Phillies will forfeit their first round draft pick to the Red Sox as compensation for Jon Papelbon, but if the Red Sox sign any other free agent closers like Ryan Madson or Heath Bell.  By not having to give up a draft pick, I think the Red Sox are much more likely to sign a top reliever to help compensate for the loss of Paps.  According to a Hardball Times study, draft picks in the 15-30 range typically produce an extra $6.5 million worth of value.  That extra $6 million of value is nice to have (although it is hardly something you can count on - sometimes you get Mike Trout, sometimes you get Andrew Brackman), and the Red Sox have the Phillies' impatience to thank for that little windfall.

The Curious Case of Francisco Cordero

The Red Sox have been linked with Francisco Cordero.  Cordero has been a remarkably consistent closer since his elite 2007.  He's saved 34 games every single game since 2007.  His ERA has bounced around in those years, ranging from 2.16-3.84, but he's always held on to his closer job.  What's even more attractive is that he just posted one of the best seasons of his career in 2010, with a sparkling 2.45 ERA and 37 saves.

However, if we dig a bit deeper, things look much more bleak for Cordero.  Since his spectacular 2007 when he had a K/9 of over 12, his strikeout rate has declined every single year.  Despite his 2.45 ERA in 2010, his K rate was easily the lowest of his career (5.43 K/9) and was well below average for a reliever, let alone a solid closer.  He did lower his walk rate to the lowest it has been since 2007 (2.83 BB/9), but the strikeout rate screams that a disaster is looming.  How exactly did he manage to avoid disaster in 2010?  The lowered walk rate helped a lot, but the major contributor was his strand rate of 82%, well above league average of about 75%.  Looking at his expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP), Cordero has had an expected ERA of around 4.00 for the last three years.

In doing research for this, I found that Yankees reliever Tyler Clippard had an insane 95.6% of his baserunners left on base.  The worst with 60+ innings pitched?  Tim Wakefield at 59%.  Maybe he is worth another go around, as a bounceback in luckiness in runners stranded would make his ERA a lot more palatable.


But, if we dig even deeper, there are good signs for Cordero.  Despite the massive drop in his strike out rate, Cordero's swinging strike rate actually increased between 2009 and 2010.  Although it is well off his career high, his 10% swinging strike rate should lead to a K/9 of about 8.5, using the quick rule of thumb of swinging strike percentage - 1.5, which is very good.  If he can maintain his 2.84 BB/9 rate and his 50% ground ball rate, that would have led to a FIP of about 3.5 for 2011.  That isn't anything special, but it is solid.

All told, I'm not sure Cordero is a great fit for the Red Sox, despite his improved control and increased swinging strike rate in 2011.  Given his saves totals over the last four years and his ERA in 2011, he'll probably benefit from the "proven closer" reputation.  But, it is interesting to see how his statistics can be used to tell very different stories, as even the "Sabremetric" statistics point in different directions.  I could have written three very different posts using statistics.  Remember, as Mark Twain liked to say, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.