Saltal-itek - A top ten catcher?

I never thought I'd write this coming in to the season, but the Red Sox catchers have quietly contributed offensively. In March, I would have happily taken "not a complete black hole", given the poor showing by both Varitek and Saltalamacchia down the stretch. Red Sox catchers are now 6th in OPS, driven primarily by very good power. They've hit the third most home runs, are fourth in slugging, and second in isolated power (slugging percentage - batting average). The two combined still have an OBP of .311, which is very poor overall and mediocre for a catcher, but the power makes up for the poor on base skills. Given how slow both players are, maybe it is good that they're not "clogging up the bases".

Amazingly, Red Sox catchers in 2011 are actually out performing Red Sox catchers in 2010. While the overall line is a bit down, when you account for the decline in offense around the league, the 2011 combo come out ahead using Fangraph's "runs created plus" statistic (107 to 105), with 100 being league average production. Neither Saltalamacchia nor Varitek are as good as Victor Martinez, but they're having a better season than the three of them combined for in 2010.

It will be interesting to see how the Red Sox handle Jason Varitek this offseason. He is a free agent, and negotiations haven't always gone smoothly between Tek and the front office. Also, Ryan Lavarnway's impressive 2011 season forces the Red Sox hand a bit; even if he's only barely a passable catcher, you ought to see what you have in a guy who hit 31 bombs between AA and AAA in a year. That is more power than top catching prospects Matt Wieters, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, or Jesus Montero ever showed.

Closing the books in SF

San Francisco recently made two major moves. While they both might improve the team, they're actually addition by subtraction. The Giants announced today that both Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada have been designated for assignment. This means that they either need to trade them or release them in the next week or so. Thanks to the poor performance from both, the Giants will likely have to eat the money owed to both, including $12 million to Rowand in 2012.

While both deals were bad, the two contracts came from very different places. Aaron Rowand was the benefactor of some very good luck. He had always been, and continues to be, an excellent defensive player, but in 2007 Rowand established career highs in just about every category, hitting .309/.374/.515 for the Phillies. This wasn't completely out of the blue - Rowand had been the major piece in the White Sox/Phillies trade involving Jim Thome, and had a very good 2004. However, he followed this up with two sub par seasons and by the time he hit free agency he was entering his age 30 season. An out of nowhere season for a player entering his 30's usually means trouble is coming for whoever signs him. The Giants ponied up a 5 year, $60 million contract, hoping to minimize the offense blow of losing Barry Bonds. If Rowand could continue to hit while playing excellent center field, he could certainly help to keep the Giants afloat.

Sadly, it just wasn't meant to be. Aaron Rowand showed that the poor 2005 and 2006 were much more representative of his true talent than his impressive 2007 season, and Rowand struggled in all four of his seasons with the Giants, and according to Fangraphs, he never was an above average player on offense. Despite that fact, Aaron Rowand was an above average player for the Giants, just nowhere close to his $15 million/year price tag. Thanks to some spectacular defense in centerfield, Rowand logged positive value overall for all four years of his contract. Ultimately, Rowand isn't a bad baseball player. Based on Fangraph's calculations from his wins above replacement, Rowand was worth $21 million in his four seasons by the bay. His ability to hold his own against lefties and play all three outfield positions well makes him a great fourth outfielder. Unfortunately, the Giants were looking for a star and had a hole to fill in center field. The funny thing is, Rowand may still play a role in the playoffs this season. Several teams, including the Phillies and Red Sox, are a little thin in the outfield and could use his versatility and I imagine we'll be seeing Rowand somewhere in October, after the Giants are sitting at home.

The Miguel Tejada deal wasn't nearly as bad. It is almost impossible for a one year deal to go horrendously wrong, especially at a price tag of $6.5 million. With Tejada, the Giants again were looking to an older player to contribute, despite warning signs about what was coming. In 2010, Tejada was terrible for the Orioles, but had a bit of a bounce after being traded to the Padres, hitting for a .730 OPS. Nothing incredible, but in Petco Park, that isn't horrendous. The Giants stepped up this offseason, hoping he could building on what he had done in San Diego. Splitting time between shortstop, where he's been below average defensively for several years, and third base, where he has been a solid defender, but his bat looks even more inadequate, Tejada limped to a sub .600 OPS and was worth LESS than replacement value.

It is a shame the Giants won't get a chance to defend their title, given their spectacular pitching, but it isn't all that surprising. Amazingly, of the 71 players in the National League who qualify for the batting title (3.1 plate appearances per team's game), only one is on the Giants. To add insult to injury, that player, Aubrey Huff, has been the second worse player in the National League by WAR, being below average batting, fielding, and running the bases. It is a minor miracle that they're 6 games over .500 right now, but when you have three 4+ WAR pitchers on your roster, that goes a long way.

As a crazy aside, only the Phillies have a better top three in the game. Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee are currently 1, 3, and 4 in the NL in WAR combining for a preposterous 17.7 wins above replacement. The Giants trio, while excellent, lags well behind at 13.4 WAR.

An interesting take on the Sox trades

The Red Sox traded away several prospects in order to get rental starting pitcher Eric Bedard, and super utility player Mike Aviles. As Brian MacPherson, of the Projo, notes, three of the prospects included in the deal could have been lost this winter for nothing in the rule 5 draft. When a player gets enough minor league experience, if he is not on the 40 man roster, another team can draft him in the rule 5 draft, and keep them so long as they stay on the 25 man, major league roster for an entire season.

Stephen Fife, Tim Federowicz, and Chih-Hsien Chiang all could have been lost in the rule 5 draft this winter. Yamaico Navarro was already on the 40 man roster, as he's been playing with the major league team already this year. Even if the Red Sox had kept them, it might have meant letting go of reclamation projects like Andrew Miller or restricted their ability to take a flier on other rebounding veterans. Given the added flexibility Theo now has with the roster, the cost of the deadline deals drops substantially.

A very odd line

Peter Bourjos had a very odd game on Saturday night. Despite starting, he did not record a single at bat, but only walked once. He also scored and drove in a run, to go along with two stolen bases.

So his line was 0/0, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB.

Just how did he do it?

For starters, he didn't do it with a sacrifice fly, which is the easiest way to drive in a run without recording an at bat. Instead he did it the hard way, with a hit by pitch with the bases loaded in the 5th. His other three plate appearances included a walk, a sacrifice, and another hit by pitch. Despite not recording a hit or even an at bat, Bourjos clearly contributed to the Angels 5-1 win over Detroit. He had the best WPA for a hitter on the team, adding about a 1/4 of a win, only outdone by starting pitcher Dan Haren (0.348). Certainly an unconventional way to contribute, but hey, whatever works.

Trade deadline thoughts

With Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis at the corners, the Orioles could have unbelievable power production from their corners. Of course, both could hit .220 with their 30 home runs. At least Reynolds can work the count and get on base with a free pass regularly.

In Texas, Koji Uehara instantly becomes the best pitcher in the Texas bullpen. Neftali Feliz just doesn't look like the same pitcher he was in 2010. He's striking out three fewer batters per inning, taking his K rate from elite to below average, and his walk rate has doubled. Uehara, on the other hand, has quietly put together a spectacular season so far. He's striking out more batters than 2010, and more batters per inning than Feliz did in his spectacular 2010, with absolutely elite control (1.5 BB/9). His 30% groundball rate is terrifyingly low, but when you're striking that many batters out and not allowing many free passes, you can get away with it.

The Phillies traded their top two prospects for Hunter Pence. They needed the outfield depth, but both Cosart and Singleton were in Baseball America's top 40. For a player that isn't a star, that's a lot to pay. At least he's under team control for several years. The Ibanez contract is up next year, so that will give Dominic Brown another shot at the majors in 2012, and could give the Phillies a spectacularly athletic outfield, with Victorino in center. For Houston, it was a no brainer. That team is not going anywhere soon, and to get a potential impact hitter and pitcher, you have to pull the trigger.

The Fister/Furbush trade looks like a win win. The back of the Tigers rotation has been shaky. While Fister by himself won't be a major difference maker, he should slide nicely in to the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation. Furbush could eventually become a similar pitcher, but much like the Red Sox deal with the Royals, he just wasn't ready for that role yet. The other prospects may end up tipping the deal in favor of the Mariners, though. Long term, that massive losing streak may pay dividends, allowing them to sell.

My take: Red Sox trade for Mike Aviles

Red Sox trade Yamaico Navarro and Kendal Volz for Mike Aviles

The general consensus on Navarro was that he could become a Mike Aviles type. Although he can play all over the infield, he doesn't play anywhere particularly well. He does a little bit of everything with the bat though. At 23, there is still time for him to become a major leaguer, but he's looking more like a utility guy. Kendal Volz was a mediocre starting pitcher prospect for the Red Sox, become transitioning to a reliever this season. Despite being 23, he's still in A ball, but he has struck out 56 in 51 innings this season. He's a long way from the majors, but could develop into a 6th or 7th inning guy.

Mike Aviles had a breakout rookie season, hitting .325/.354/.480, but has been a disappointment since. He had a disastrous sophomore season that was cut short by a forearm break, a bounceback 2010, and another disappointing season this year, only hitting .222/.261/.395. There are a couple reasons to be hopeful, though. In 2011 he has hit for a career high in isolated power (slugging percentage - batting average), and he's striking out less than the average major leaguer. He's been unlucky on balls in play (.231), but he also doesn't have very many line drives, which are strongly correlated with BABIP. All in all, I wouldn't expect great things from Aviles, but he should be serviceable, even at shortstop. Scutaro is dinged up and Lowrie is just about to begin his rehab assignment.

The deal fills a need for the Red Sox. If they don't make this deal and Scutaro goes down we're looking at Drew Sutton at short stop on a regular basis. Navarro in particular is likely to be a major leaguer, but he doesn't look quite ready yet. Long term, the Red Sox will probably lose this deal, but for 2011 it makes them better.

Josh Reddick: A familiar story?

When Reddick first got called up and started hitting well, my first thought was "Huh, wonder if he's kind of like Trot Nixon." As you can probably guess, the answer was “Yes,” otherwise this wouldn’t be a very interesting post. Nixon was a first round pick by the Red Sox in 1993 and a former top prospect (ranked as high as 13 overall by BA) whose star gradually faded (ranked 1994-1996: 13, 46, 39, but not ranked in 1997 and 1998) before breaking out in AAA at the age of 24, putting up a .310/.400/.513 line, which got him back in to the tail end of the Baseball America Prospect Rankings (99 in 1999). It is easy to see why there was skepticism about Nixon’s breakout year – his numbers the previous three years were poor to mediocre, and at 24 he was a bit old for AAA. However, Baseball America put a little bit of faith in the former top prospect by ranking him. The following year, in full time duty as the Red Sox right fielder, Nixon put up a .270/.357/.472 line, and became a lineup stalwart through 2007, although after his career year in 2003, when he was almost four wins above replacement, back injuries and old age caught up with him, as he played in fewer and fewer games per year with declining numbers.

We don’t know what kind of trajectory Reddick’s career will take, but his minor league career path has followed Nixon’s well. Josh Reddick was drafted in the 17th round of the 2006 draft out of a Georgia junior college, a solid draft that included other major leaguers such as Justin Masterson, Ryan Kalish, and Daniel Bard. Reddick signed for $140,000, which doesn’t exceed the slot threshold for all players drafted after the fifth round. After hitting well in A and high A ball to begin his minor league career, and reaching as high as #3 in the Red Sox system and 75 overall in Baseball America’s rankings, Reddick’s career stalled out in AA and AAA. Now, at 24, he put up a solid .230/.333/.508 line, which was most likely dragged down by his average on balls in play, as Andrew noted. He also began to walk more, with his “luck adjusted” line rising to .298/.390/.576. I’m not quite as bullish as Andrew – I think that Trot Nixon’s career, especially the peak value, is a lot better than median for Reddick. It is easy to forget just how good Nixon was, for his career in Boston he was a .278/.364/.464 hitter and he accumulated more than twenty wins above replacement. Nixon was never a star, but was a contributor nearly every single year in a Red Sox uniform. It will be a major coup for the Red Sox if Reddick can become an inexpensive 2-4 win player, as Trot Nixon was.

With Reddick’s defense, ability to draw a walk, and enough pop to carry a corner outfield position, I think there is a fair shot that he fills the right field vacancy everyone had pegged Ryan Kalish to fill. One thing to keep an eye on going forward is how many at bats Reddick gets against left handed pitchers. Lefties were always an issue with Nixon, and he only hit .214/.308/.322 against them for his career. Reddick only has 50 AB in AAA and 9 in the majors against lefties in 2011, so we can't really draw any conclusions about platoon splits just yet.