Some random thoughts

Justin Masterson, the former Red Sox prospect who was a key part of the Victor Martinez deal, looks like he's turned the corner in Cleveland. In a very nice start last week, he allowed nine hits over seven innings. Eight of these hits were singles, and five of those were infield hits. Effectively, it was like facing an entire lineup of Derek Jeters! Overall, Masterson has put up a 2.11 ERA in 47 innings, while posting solid strikeout and walk rates. While he has been a bit lucky with the home runs (2.8% HR/FB, where the major league average is about 10%), he finally is becoming the pitcher he thought the Red Sox thought he could become.

Ben Zobrist is having a bounceback year in Tampa Bay, and got a lot of press for having a monster double header against the Twins a week and a half ago, when he hit two home runs and drove in ten runs. Since that game, Zobrist has continued to hit very well, going 12/35 (.343 average). In an interesting little twist, in those nine games since the double header, Zobrist has not driven in a single run, despite scoring ten himself. The run binge has balanced out his stat line, putting him at 25 RBI and 28 R for the season, good for fifth and first in the AL, respectively. After falling to 2-8, the Rays are now tied atop the AL East with the Yankees at 20-14. For a team that lost an incredible number of free agents in the offseason and was missing Longoria for almost all of this season, that's awfully impressive.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are still struggling with uneven play. They managed to make it to 14-15 by beating an incredible run of starting pitchers - Felix Hernandez, Dan Haren, and Jeff Weaver. Of course, after that they dropped their next three games. Winning their last two has pulled them back to two games below .500, but they're only four games behind the Yankees and Tampa Bay. It is still early, but it is not going to be early for too terribly much longer...

Gaming the System

As many of you are aware, when a high quality free agent signs with a new team, their old team gets draft picks as compensation. For the top tier players (Type A), the new team actually gives up their first round pick and the old team receives a sandwich round pick, between the first and second rounds. Since winning the World Series in 2004, perhaps no team has done more with their compensatory picks than the Red Sox.

Over the last six years, many high profile free agents have left town, often on less than good terms. After the spectacular 2004 World Series victory, three key contributors, Orlando Cabrera, Pedro Martinez, and Derek Lowe all signed with new teams. After 2005 another two important players, Johnny Damon and Bill Mueller, signed with new teams. In return for losing these five players, the Red Sox were awarded a total of nine draft picks, including some very familiar names: Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden, and Johnathon Egan in 2005 and Daniel Bard, Kris Johnson, and Caleb Clay in 2006. While Johnson, Clay, and Egan are essentially organizational depth at this point, all the other players have either contributed at the major league level, or were traded away in major deals.

For example, Craig Hansen, who was a compensation pick for losing Derek Lowe, was part of the trade package for Jason Bay. After a year and a half in Boston, Bay signed with the New York Mets, netting the Red Sox another two draft picks, which they used to pick 2010 draftees Bryce Brentz and Brandon Workman.

It is far too early to gauge the impact of the 2010 draftees, the top four of which were drafted with compensation picks, but those picks certainly gave the Red Sox the depth on the farm system to trade away Kelly, Rizzo, et al. for Adrian Gonzalez this winter. Ranaudo, in particular, looks like the steal of the draft. The Red Sox will have at least one more year to exploit the free agent compensation system - after losing Adrian Beltre to the Rangers and Victor Martinez to the Tigers, they'll have four picks in the first forty (19, 26, 36, 40). These extra picks, combined with a willingness to go over slot for top talent, mean that the Sox have a chance for another impact draft, like 2005. The 2005 included key contributors to the 2007 championship, perhaps the 2010 and 2011 drafts will provide a similar foundation. This strategy may soon be obsolete, the Major League Baseball collective bargaining agreement is set to expire this offseason and draft pick compensation is one of the potential changes. Sometimes players who are classified as Type A free agents by the Elias Sports Bureau's formulas, but aren't considered top players by general managers, end up in what Buster Olney dubbed "compensation-pick purgatory", where they're definitely good player, but not good enough to be worth sacrificing a first round draft pick for.

Down on the Farm

We're a few weeks in to the minor league season, so I thought I'd check in on how some of the Red Sox top prospects are doing.

Kolbrin Vitek was the Red Sox first round pick in 2010 (20th overall). Because he signed right away, Vitek was able to get 286 at bats split between low A and high A in 2010, putting up a combined .274/.364/.418 with 4 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Vitek is building on a solid debut with a .300/.404/.450 line. That line is particularly impressive given that he started the season by going 2/23. Coming in to the draft, Vitek's bat wasn't in question, but where he would play uncertain. The Red Sox have been playing him at third base, but the jury is still out whether or not he'll be able to stick there.

Anthony Ranaudo was a supplemental round pick for the Red Sox. As I've written before, Ranaudo came in to the college season as a candidate for the #2 pick behind Bryce Harper, before falling due to a poor season. While he didn't sign in time to play any minor league games, the Red Sox were able to see him dominate the Cape Cod League, presumably tipping the scales in favor of signing him for $2.5 million. So far this season, Ranaudo has rewarded the major investment in him, striking out 15 in 15 innings in A ball, while only giving up one run. Given his polish as a college ace, Ranaudo could move up to AA relatively quickly.

Jose Iglesias has been touted as the guy who will close the revolving door at shortstop for the Red Sox. Jed Lowrie is doing his best to establish himself there, but many are predicting Iglesias as the shortstop by midseason of 2012. Iglesias' glove has been described as the best many scouts have seen, and so far his hitting has been a pleasant surprise, hitting .295/.339/.379 as a 20 year old in A and AA. Iglesias has struggled so far this year (.257/.316/.257) in AAA, but it is a very aggressive assignment. Because the bat isn't ready I don't think we'll see him in the majors this season, except for maybe a cup of coffee in September. Iglesias is just 21 years old, so there isn't a need to rush him to the majors, especially with emergence of Lowrie and the steady, if unspectacular, production of Scutaro.

A couple of old friends are doing well in San Diego. Anthony Rizzo, one of the key parts of the Adrian Gonzalez trade, is dominating in AAA, hitting .436/.483/.764. Rizzo is showing his power spike in AA last year, 25 home runs, more than doubling hit previous high, was not a fluke by hitting four home runs in his first 60 at bats. Rizzo could be a huge contributor in San Diego very soon. It's always disappointing to see a prospect breakout after being traded away, but you don't get bats like Adrian Gonzalez cheaply. Casey Kelly, the top prospect in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, has also been solid in three AAA starts. Although he has a 3.31 and 1.04 WHIP through his first 16 innings, the strikeout rate has not been particularly impressive. Kelly has always been touted as a pitcher with an advanced approach, but sooner or later he'll need to strikeout more batters if he is going to become the #2 pitcher that many scouts project him to become.

Things like this make me miss Coco

Sure, he was a disappointment in his time with the Red Sox, but he sure does know how to kick it old school. Adding the fro to go with the 1970's inspired mustard yellow Oakland A's alternate uniforms is an awfully nice touch.

Bright spots

It has been a rough start to the season. Ever since the 0-6 start, Sox fans have been repeatedly bludgeoned with "No team with a record of X-Y has ever made the playoffs." It's been an ugly, ugly start, but there are some things to be legitimately hopeful about.

First, Josh Beckett has looked spectacular. His start against the Yankees on Sunday night, with the team desperate for a win, was incredible. His game score was 88, well above the previous high for his career. His K/9 is the highest of his career, albeit in a small sample size, and the new cutter appears to be finally working for him after being blamed for his gaudy home run totals in 2010. Since Beckett is locked up for another four years, a return to form is a great sign for 2011 and the overall performance of the Red Sox down the road, too.

Dustin Pedroia appears to be showing no ill effects from breaking his foot last summer. Considering the fact that he still has screws in his foot, which will be removed this offseason, that is pretty impressive. Pedroia currently has a line of .320/.421/.540, and did the bulk of the damage on the season against the Yankees. He had three hits in each of the three games of the series, going 9/15, with three doubles and a home run. When the team desperately needed to win, he put them on his back. Last year only two players (Hanley Ramirez and Robinson Cano) had three consecutive games with three hits.

In case you're wondering, the record holder for consecutive three hit games is George Brett, who had six consecutive three hit games in May of 1976, while going 18 of 26. I think Rod Carew, who is tied for second at five, had a more impressive run. In early June of 1975 Rod Carew went 15 for 18 with six walks and three strikeouts. During the streak he was up 24 times, and hit more home runs (4), than he made outs (3). Despite a triple slash line of .833/.875/.1.556 from Carew, the Twins managed to go 0-5. All of this information is from the Baseball Reference blog, found here.

Finally, Papelbon seems to have returned to form. I always felt the reports of his death were greatly exaggerated this offseason. Coming in to the season his K rate was above 10 K/9 IP for three consecutive years. The pitcher everyone expected to replace him, Daniel Bard, actually struck out fewer batters and walked more in 2010, but because Papelbon was a bit unlucky, stranding only 66% of the baserunners he allowed, while Bard stranded 86% (MLB average = 75%), Bard's ERA was nearly two full runs lower.

There are some definite concerns (Lackey, Matsuzaka) and some under-performers who should turn it around (Gonzalez, Crawford, Youkilis) that have led to the 3-10 record, but there are also some reasons to be hopeful.

Reshuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic

OK, maybe it isn't quite that bad, but the Red Sox have decided to use their unexpected off day thanks to the postponement of the Red Sox Rays game on Wednesday, and have reshuffled their rotation. John Lackey, who was scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, was bumped back to Tuesday, Daisuke was pushed back from Saturday to Sunday, and Jon Lester will pitch on Saturday on four days rest. Both Daisuke and Lackey have struggled mightily, posting WHIPs that would be good ERAs (2.71 and 2.42, respectively) and K:BB ratios right around 1. Giving them time off is definitely a good idea, but I'm not sure one start is going to make a difference. Given Daisuke's ineffectiveness over the last year and a half, you have to wonder if this is his last shot to stay in the Red Sox rotation. Both Alfredo Aceves and Tim Wakefield have pitched relatively well, have started in the past, and were stretched out as starters to begin the season. Aceves, in particular, has been sharp, with 5 strikeouts in 5 2/3 IP and no walks. If I had to pick the guy I expect to be 5th starter in a month, I'd put my money on Aceves. Daisuke could probably be traded, potentially to the NL, but the Sox would probably have to eat about $15 million of the $20.67 owed over the next two years. Shuffling the starting pitchers around isn't going to make a huge difference - the hitters need to start hitting with runners on, and the pitchers need to cut down on the walks and home runs.

A lack of understanding of probabilities

Tom Verducci wrote a recent article for SI.com primarily about why Red Sox fans should be worried (the three word summary: old, expensive pitchers). He also went on to discuss the amazing success of home teams this year (55-35 record, good for a .611 winning percentage), and how it would be the biggest home field advantage ever! Unlike in other games, where home field advantage is a result of crowd noise, the structure of a baseball game will always favor a home team, even if the teams are identical.

That might be a project for another time...

Over the last ten years the home team has been good for a .545 wining percentage. Using that as the "true" winning percentage, I ran a simulation of 1,000 sets of 90 games. In 113 of them, the home teams won 55 games or more, clearly demonstrating that the hot start for home teams is well within the boundaries of random variation. Just think, we were equally likely to ending up with an article discussing the death of home field advantage, as home teams won 43 or fewer of the 90 games (0.478 winning percentage! Worst ever!) 120 times out of the 1,000 simulations.

Verducci does get it half right - acknowledging that he thinks it is a random development - but then manages to undermine that statement by then attributing the winning percentage to "cycles in the game". If I can show that you're wrong in a couple commercial breaks between innings, your idea probably shouldn't be a major feature of your article.