This game marked the return of Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound, with E-Rod pitching for the Red Sox for the first time since September 29, 2019. Rodriguez was slated to pitch on opening day, though the start of his season was delayed due to a “dead arm.” 2019 was a huge let down after the 2018 World Series Champion team, with the Red Sox finishing 19 games behind the Yankees for the AL East and 12 games behind the Rays for the second wild card spot, but Rodriguez was undoubtedly a highlight for the season. He shouldered a full load, making 34 starts and throwing over 200 innings for a rotation that lost Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi for huge chunks of the year.
Eduardo Rodriguez pitched fairly well in his return to the mound, striking out seven while walking no one in five innings. He did give up three runs, all via the long ball, leaving his overall line a bit less impressive than some of the underlying numbers. Despite the 3 runs and the shorter outing (unsurprising, given that he’s coming off the dead arm), there are some positives to be found in the box score. On a per pitch basis, Rodriguez seemed sharp on the whole, throwing 56 of his 790 pitches for strikes (71%) and inducing 10 swinging strikes (12.6%). In general, he got ahead of hitters, with 13/20 getting first pitch strikes. His line of 7 strikeouts and no walks inspires some confidence that 2019 Rodriguez is back, even if the two home runs in only five innings pitched puts a damper on things a little bit. The first inning home run to Mountcastle was a tough one to give up; ahead 0-2, Rodriguez left a fastball over the plate in the upper portion of the strike zone. Mountcastle took advantage of that mistake and lashed a line drive home run to the power alley in right field to tie the score at 2 after an early Red Sox lead. Rodriguez also gave up a home run to Severino on a first pitch middle-middle fastball that Severino sent to the right field seats. Rodriguez was sitting around his 2019 velocity, but the location certainly left something to be desired.
Rodriguez threw his last pitch with a 3-2 deficit, courtesy of the aforementioned home runs. However, by the bottom of the sixth came, that score had flipped to a 4-3 lead. The Sox turned to Rule 5 pickup Garrett Whitlock to try and hang on to the lead, and he delivered. Whitlock, who was acquired from the Yankees for a small amount of cash ($100,000, so small by major league baseball standards), but has to stay on the MLB roster for the Red Sox to keep him, has certainly looked the part of a major league pitcher, despite never throwing above AA and spending 2020 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Because of his lack of experience and injury history, the Yankees left him off of the 40 man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft, and he was snapped up by the pitching hungry Red Sox with the 4th pick of the Rule 5 draft for $100,000. Whitlock threw well in the blowout loss to cap off the Orioles sweep , throwing 3 1/3 innings with 5 strikeouts and three hits. But coming into a close game is an entirely different matter, especially for a Rule 5 pick that is essentially stashed on the roster. Whitlock pitched exceptionally well, throwing 2 perfect innings with 3 strikeouts. Of his 20 pitches, only five were balls and he induced 5 swinging and 4 called strikes. Whitlock certainly looks the part of a major league pitcher, at 6’5” and 190 lbs and has the stuff to match (95 MPH fastball, slider, and a developing changeup), though durability will certainly be a concern. Right now, he looks like an absolute steal in the Rule 5 draft, and could potentially even slide into the rotation in the second half of the season. He allowed the Red Sox to bridge to the back end of the bullpen, and showed some killer stuff.
Following Whitlock, Matt Andriese pitched the 8th inning. Andriese has been a guy throughout his career, posting about league average stats in a variety of roles. Andriese worked around a walk and a hit in the 8th, but nothing from his box score particularly jumps out.
Matt Barnes slammed the door on the Orioles this game, even if it was not a save situation. Barnes struck out Maikel Franco and Pedro Severino (who victimized E-Rod earlier in the game) on six pitches. In fact, he was one pitch away from an immaculate inning (9 pitches, 3 strikeouts) before Freddy Galvis fouled off an 0-2 curveball. Barnes got him in the end, striking him out on a 1-2 curve. All told, Barnes threw 11 pitches, 10 for strikes, and induced 3 swinging strikes. In short, he was dominant. It wasn’t quite an immaculate inning, but striking out the side on 11 pitches is pretty damn good as well.
Thursday, April 8, 2021
Monday, April 5, 2021
One game, one team: Toronto Blue Jays 4/1/2021
I am trying to get back into writing a little bit about baseball. With these shorter pieces, I will focus on tidbits from box scores and highlights for one team in one specific game. Hopefully I'll be able to do some larger pieces later in the season once the semester is over.
On Opening Day, the Blue Jays eeked out a one run win over the Yankees in ten innings. They had a few close calls before pulling it out. The ace of the staff last year, Hyun-Jin Ryu was tapped for the first start, and Ryu struggled with first pitches, only getting ahead of 7 of the 21 batters he faced. Twelve swinging strikes is nice (13%), but he’ll need better control in order to maintain his success from the last couple of years. In 2020, his walk rate ticked up to 6.2%, which is about the same as his career numbers (5.5%), but well above the very successful years he had with the Dodgers (4.6% in 2018, 3.3% in 2019). While he only walked one batter this start, the
Dolis pitched the 8th inning, showing no issues stemming from the back spasms that caused him to miss a bit of time towards the end of spring training. Dolis assumed the traditional setup man role for this game, pitching the 8th with the score tied at 2. He was slated to face the 3-4-5 hitters (Hicks, Stanton, Torres) so the Blue Jays may be focusing on having him face the top hitters. Unsurprisingly, this closer situation will need monitoring, as Dolis could very well have pitched the 9th if the batting order in the late innings was just a bit different.
Jordan Romero was nearly unhittable, both because he was not throwing strikes (10/22 pitches), but also because of filthy stuff (8 swinging strikes, 36%). Last year Romero had an elite combination of high swinging strike rates (19.4%) and getting ahead of hitters (66.7% first pitch strike rate), which led him to be the top AL reliever per my modeled, based on xK and xBB rates. Only LeMahieu managed to make contact against him, with a weak groundball to third base. Granted, because of two earlier walks and a stolen base, Biggio had to make a nice throw to the plate to get the second out of the inning and prevent Tauchman’s potentially winning run from scoring, but some flashes of dominance from Romero. To end the 9th, Judge struck out on a fastball which seemed to catch him off guard, leaving the winning run at second base. Judge swung late and underneath the ball, perhaps sitting on Romano’s slider, which was his best pitch in 2020.
Merryweather was even more impressive, looking absolutely dominant to close the game out in the 10th. It only took him 11 pitches to strike out the side, and he only threw one single ball. Merryweather is an older (29) starting pitching prospect who is penciled in for the swingman role in the Blue Jays bullpen. He could emerge as an old school, multi-inning fireman. His fastball was already impressive in 2020, averaging 96.7 MPH, but in this outing it was nearly two MPH faster (98.4). Obviously a tiny sample size, but the velocity on his fastball and slider are both up about 2 MPH, while also dropping his changeup velocity. If you are in a league where middle relievers have value, he could be an excellent pickup. Since writing an initial draft of this post, Merryweather picked up another save on Sunday. He was similarly dominant, striking out 2 Yankees in a perfect inning to close out a 3-1 win. Merryweather has been nearly unhittable thus far, and could be stealing the closer job from Dolis or Romano (who pitched in the 8th on Sunday).
On Opening Day, the Blue Jays eeked out a one run win over the Yankees in ten innings. They had a few close calls before pulling it out. The ace of the staff last year, Hyun-Jin Ryu was tapped for the first start, and Ryu struggled with first pitches, only getting ahead of 7 of the 21 batters he faced. Twelve swinging strikes is nice (13%), but he’ll need better control in order to maintain his success from the last couple of years. In 2020, his walk rate ticked up to 6.2%, which is about the same as his career numbers (5.5%), but well above the very successful years he had with the Dodgers (4.6% in 2018, 3.3% in 2019). While he only walked one batter this start, the
Dolis pitched the 8th inning, showing no issues stemming from the back spasms that caused him to miss a bit of time towards the end of spring training. Dolis assumed the traditional setup man role for this game, pitching the 8th with the score tied at 2. He was slated to face the 3-4-5 hitters (Hicks, Stanton, Torres) so the Blue Jays may be focusing on having him face the top hitters. Unsurprisingly, this closer situation will need monitoring, as Dolis could very well have pitched the 9th if the batting order in the late innings was just a bit different.
Jordan Romero was nearly unhittable, both because he was not throwing strikes (10/22 pitches), but also because of filthy stuff (8 swinging strikes, 36%). Last year Romero had an elite combination of high swinging strike rates (19.4%) and getting ahead of hitters (66.7% first pitch strike rate), which led him to be the top AL reliever per my modeled, based on xK and xBB rates. Only LeMahieu managed to make contact against him, with a weak groundball to third base. Granted, because of two earlier walks and a stolen base, Biggio had to make a nice throw to the plate to get the second out of the inning and prevent Tauchman’s potentially winning run from scoring, but some flashes of dominance from Romero. To end the 9th, Judge struck out on a fastball which seemed to catch him off guard, leaving the winning run at second base. Judge swung late and underneath the ball, perhaps sitting on Romano’s slider, which was his best pitch in 2020.
Merryweather was even more impressive, looking absolutely dominant to close the game out in the 10th. It only took him 11 pitches to strike out the side, and he only threw one single ball. Merryweather is an older (29) starting pitching prospect who is penciled in for the swingman role in the Blue Jays bullpen. He could emerge as an old school, multi-inning fireman. His fastball was already impressive in 2020, averaging 96.7 MPH, but in this outing it was nearly two MPH faster (98.4). Obviously a tiny sample size, but the velocity on his fastball and slider are both up about 2 MPH, while also dropping his changeup velocity. If you are in a league where middle relievers have value, he could be an excellent pickup. Since writing an initial draft of this post, Merryweather picked up another save on Sunday. He was similarly dominant, striking out 2 Yankees in a perfect inning to close out a 3-1 win. Merryweather has been nearly unhittable thus far, and could be stealing the closer job from Dolis or Romano (who pitched in the 8th on Sunday).
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
A star lefty, in decline
Over the last three years, including thus far in the 2014 season, this highly touted ace has seen his ERA rise almost a full earned run between both 2012 and 2013, and 2013 and 2014, and is now solidly below average. He's been victimized by a decline in ground balls (53% in 2012 to 42.6 in 2014) and a lot more fly balls leaving the park (15.7% in 2014, compared to a 9.4% on his career).
On baseball fandom, modern society, and poverty
This is a rather random observation, starting with a spectacular infographic from the New York Times which mined Facebook information to map out which places root for which baseball teams.Seriously, go play around with that map. Right now.
Not to get overly dramatic, but the map of baseball fandom can really lead to some conclusions about America as a whole. Before we start wildly speculating, an important caveat for this map. The percentages are calculated based on how often baseball teams are being mentioned in a Facebook post. It does not look at overall levels of support for baseball compared to other sports or activities, so those percentages should be read as numbers specific to posts regarding baseball.
First, the west is settled by transplants, who are taking their previous allegiances with them. People living close to west coast teams at 50-60% support in their highest counties, whereas east coast teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, and Phillies are in the 70-80%. This isn't surprising; people aren't moving to Boston from California too terribly often, at least in comparison to migrants in the other direction.
The Halo Effect
Additionally, we can see some interesting effects surrounding major cities, such as Boston. I've only shown Boston as an example, but similar patterns surround St. Louis and Philadelphia. What we can see is that the areas surrounding the city actually have higher support for the local team than the city itself. If folks from elsewhere in the country are moving to these areas (and bringing their baseball allegiance with them), they're more likely to move into the major metropolitan areas, rather than the suburbs. So what we see is a halo of higher local team support surrounding the city center.
Not all cities follow this pattern though. Take Detroit, for example. Instead of having a lower level of support in the city center, we see a halo of lower support surrounding the city center, which has higher support than the surrounding suburbs. We can use the level of support for the local team as a proxy for the amount of people moving into the area from other parts of the country. So in Boston, if you're moving into the area, you're staying close to the city, but if you're in Detroit, you're moving into the suburbs north and west of the city. This difference shouldn't be too surprising, as Detroit is a classic example of white flight from a major metropolitan area.
Local Support and Poverty
We can see in Detroit a higher poverty level in the core city center, compared to the surrounding suburbs. This is a pattern you see in almost every city in the US, but it is particularly marked in Detroit. I think the implications are simple - if an area has a very high poverty level, new transplants to the city are less likely to move there, which in turn will maintain higher levels of support for the local team.
This pattern also holds true in western cities, such as Los Angeles. It shouldn't be too surprising that we see higher poverty rates in city centers - this is a pattern that holds true in all cities across the country, even in very high income cities like San Francisco. However, the association between poverty and home team support seems to be more marked in poorer cities overall.
If you'd like to look at poverty rates in the US, here is another nice infographic from the New York Times.
Not to get overly dramatic, but the map of baseball fandom can really lead to some conclusions about America as a whole. Before we start wildly speculating, an important caveat for this map. The percentages are calculated based on how often baseball teams are being mentioned in a Facebook post. It does not look at overall levels of support for baseball compared to other sports or activities, so those percentages should be read as numbers specific to posts regarding baseball.
First, the west is settled by transplants, who are taking their previous allegiances with them. People living close to west coast teams at 50-60% support in their highest counties, whereas east coast teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, and Phillies are in the 70-80%. This isn't surprising; people aren't moving to Boston from California too terribly often, at least in comparison to migrants in the other direction.
The Halo Effect
 | |
| Red Sox support surrounding Boston (darker=higher) |
 |
| Tigers support surrounding Detroit (darker=higher) |
Local Support and PovertyWe can see in Detroit a higher poverty level in the core city center, compared to the surrounding suburbs. This is a pattern you see in almost every city in the US, but it is particularly marked in Detroit. I think the implications are simple - if an area has a very high poverty level, new transplants to the city are less likely to move there, which in turn will maintain higher levels of support for the local team.
This pattern also holds true in western cities, such as Los Angeles. It shouldn't be too surprising that we see higher poverty rates in city centers - this is a pattern that holds true in all cities across the country, even in very high income cities like San Francisco. However, the association between poverty and home team support seems to be more marked in poorer cities overall.
If you'd like to look at poverty rates in the US, here is another nice infographic from the New York Times.
Monday, February 24, 2014
Are qualifying offers broken or are free agents miscalculating their own value?
Nelson Cruz recently signed a one year, $8 million deal with the Orioles, Ubaldo Jimenez had to wait for ages to sign his 4 year, $50 million deal, and Stephen Drew and Ervin Santana remain unsigned. This has led to some claims that the qualifying offer system is broken, and the head of the players union, Tony Clark, is concerned about the system. The new system has teams extend a one year offer based on the highest salary for the top 125 players. The player can accept the one year deal, about $14 million, or decline it. If a different team signs that player, they forfeit their top draft pick, with the top 10 picks being protected. This new system has hurt some players, particularly ones who are not true stars.
Monday, February 17, 2014
Saving the Dempster money for a big splash?
The Red Sox have many options on how to spend the windfall, but the best one that comes to mind is acquiring Cliff Lee from the Phillies at some point this season. Acquiring Lee at midseason would use up the $13.25 million freed up by the Dempster semi-retirement. Thanks to the large amount of cap room, it wouldn't preclude other acquisitions as well. It would also give the Red Sox a true ace for the next 2.5 years that Lee would be under contract.
Despite their massive payroll ($170 million, 3rd highest in baseball), the Phillies are not expected to contend - ESPN ranked them as the second worst team in baseball. From the Phillies' perspective, dealing Lee would give them a great deal of additional financial flexibility in the next few years and would get them under the luxury tax threshold. The Lee's contract is one of the only large ones the Phillies could really move. The ink is still drying on the recent extensions to Cole Hamels and Chase Utley, and the deals to Ryan Howard and Jonathon Papelbon are pretty much unmoveable - Howard's contract was ranked at the third worst in the majors last season. Lee's contract is really the team could trade while acquiring real prospects.
Despite their massive payroll ($170 million, 3rd highest in baseball), the Phillies are not expected to contend - ESPN ranked them as the second worst team in baseball. From the Phillies' perspective, dealing Lee would give them a great deal of additional financial flexibility in the next few years and would get them under the luxury tax threshold. The Lee's contract is one of the only large ones the Phillies could really move. The ink is still drying on the recent extensions to Cole Hamels and Chase Utley, and the deals to Ryan Howard and Jonathon Papelbon are pretty much unmoveable - Howard's contract was ranked at the third worst in the majors last season. Lee's contract is really the team could trade while acquiring real prospects.
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Dempster decision simultaneously clarifies 2014, and opens up possibilities
Almost out of nowhere, Ryan Dempster has decided not to play this season. He stopped short of an official retirement, but coming off one of the worst seasons of his career and a lingering neck injury, it wouldn't be shocking if he didn't pitch again in the majors.
The move takes away the Red Sox pitching depth - prior to the decision Dempster was one of six pitchers competing for a spot in the starting rotation, with the 5th spot probably down to Dempster and Doubront. Now, the Red Sox starting 5 is set, and they still have good depth in the high minors with Brandon Workman, Allen Webster, and Rubby de la Rosa. This move probably impacts Workman more than anyone, given his success in the majors last year, both as a starter and a high leverage reliever. Now, he would be the first to step in to the rotation in case of injury or ineffectiveness (at least from Doubront), and the path to him staying a starting pitcher is much clearer. It also means he'll likely stay in the minors to start the season.
This also gives the Red Sox some substantial financial wiggle room. According to Scott Lauber, of the Boston Herald, the Red Sox had about $7 million of salary room before they'd hit the luxury cap threshold. If Ryan Dempster were placed on the restricted list, likely given his decision not to pitch this year, the Red Sox wouldn't be responsible for his $13.25 million salary, nor would it count against the luxury tax threshold. Now, the Red Sox have about $20 million to play with, allowing them to either resign Stephen Drew or give them the flexibility to make multiple major in-season acquisitions without surpassing the threshold.
Finally, best of luck to Ryan Dempster in his future endeavors. At 36 and dealing with nagging injuries, it is completely understandable that he is ready to put his family first. It is also remarkable that he is willing to give up $13 million because he doesn't think he can do an acceptable job pitching this year. He's already made almost $90 million in his career, so hopefully his family will be set for generations to come.
The move takes away the Red Sox pitching depth - prior to the decision Dempster was one of six pitchers competing for a spot in the starting rotation, with the 5th spot probably down to Dempster and Doubront. Now, the Red Sox starting 5 is set, and they still have good depth in the high minors with Brandon Workman, Allen Webster, and Rubby de la Rosa. This move probably impacts Workman more than anyone, given his success in the majors last year, both as a starter and a high leverage reliever. Now, he would be the first to step in to the rotation in case of injury or ineffectiveness (at least from Doubront), and the path to him staying a starting pitcher is much clearer. It also means he'll likely stay in the minors to start the season.
This also gives the Red Sox some substantial financial wiggle room. According to Scott Lauber, of the Boston Herald, the Red Sox had about $7 million of salary room before they'd hit the luxury cap threshold. If Ryan Dempster were placed on the restricted list, likely given his decision not to pitch this year, the Red Sox wouldn't be responsible for his $13.25 million salary, nor would it count against the luxury tax threshold. Now, the Red Sox have about $20 million to play with, allowing them to either resign Stephen Drew or give them the flexibility to make multiple major in-season acquisitions without surpassing the threshold.
Finally, best of luck to Ryan Dempster in his future endeavors. At 36 and dealing with nagging injuries, it is completely understandable that he is ready to put his family first. It is also remarkable that he is willing to give up $13 million because he doesn't think he can do an acceptable job pitching this year. He's already made almost $90 million in his career, so hopefully his family will be set for generations to come.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)