tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778433057761571364.post4371500412600741241..comments2023-10-30T04:49:38.290-04:00Comments on Mr Bill's Baseball Blog: Just how badly would Jose Iglesias have to hit in order to be below average?Mr. Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16676914320866059234noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778433057761571364.post-88038809008620750252013-03-22T12:13:56.964-04:002013-03-22T12:13:56.964-04:00Although Drew was cleared for baseball activities,...Although Drew was cleared for baseball activities, he is still a bit "foggy" according to reports, and that means he's hardly a sure thing to be ready for opening day, or if he is, that he'll stay healthy. <br /><br />That said, if Drew is ready to go, you have to give him a shot. They spent $10 million on him this offseason, plus he is only two years removed from a 5 win season, which is leaps and bounds better than the best possible outcome we can hope from Iglesias. Drew was replacement level last year, but he was also still recovering from a horrific ankle injury.<br /><br />Finally, especially with Ortiz on the DL to open the season, the Red Sox are going to need to scrabble together as many runs as they can. It'll be interesting to see what the Sox do, though, and it'll be fun to see Iglesias, even if it is for just a few weeks.Mr. Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16676914320866059234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778433057761571364.post-29364418713330110802013-03-21T23:02:09.363-04:002013-03-21T23:02:09.363-04:00Cool. Almost makes me prefer to see Iglesias star...Cool. Almost makes me prefer to see Iglesias starting instead of Drew.Luke Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03251583205855890341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778433057761571364.post-45320905925296171082013-03-21T17:17:34.149-04:002013-03-21T17:17:34.149-04:00..and it looks like this could be a moot point- St.....and it looks like this could be a moot point- Stephen Drew was just cleared for baseball activities, so he could be back to start the season.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12354204014326211323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778433057761571364.post-45054363904087462232013-03-21T17:14:26.868-04:002013-03-21T17:14:26.868-04:00I think Bill hit the nail on the head- the reason ...I think Bill hit the nail on the head- the reason we won't see Bogaerts is the same reason it's unlikely that Jackie Bradley won't start the season in the majors- 40 man roster space. Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12354204014326211323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778433057761571364.post-32183371966286977082013-03-21T16:57:19.040-04:002013-03-21T16:57:19.040-04:00One other issue with calling up Bogaerts is that h...One other issue with calling up Bogaerts is that he is not on the 40 man roster yet. Since he has only been in the system for three years, he does not yet need to be on the 40 man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. In order to call up Bogaerts, they would need to remove a man from the 40 man, even if Drew were placed on the 15 day DL. Iglesias, on the other hand, could be added to the team if Drew were placed as he is already on the 40 man.Mr. Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16676914320866059234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778433057761571364.post-27511204576992384972013-03-21T16:25:05.941-04:002013-03-21T16:25:05.941-04:00Here are Bogaerts equivalencies for his two stints...Here are Bogaerts equivalencies for his two stints in the minors:<br />AA (92 AB): .277/.283/.485<br />A+ (384 AB): .226/.276/.353<br />Weighted mean: .236/.277/.379<br /><br />That line matches up extremely well with JJ Hardy's 2012 of .232/.282/.389, which was worth -16 runs over 700 PA. <br /><br />There are two massive differences though. Bogaerts has had less than 100 PA above A+ ball and won't turn 21 until October(!). There is a much, much bigger risk of screwing him up forever by calling him up and he still is in the part of the development process where you can expect big, big, gains. Iglesias, who is hardly old at 23, had had 783 PA at AAA and 1019 at AA or higher. His bat is probably much closer to where it will be. Hopefully there is still good growth there, but Iglesias' ceiling isn't all that high (league average for a SS, but maybe a touch more average and less power - .270/.320/.350?), and at 23 that ceiling is getting less likely.<br /><br />Second, there isn't really as much to gain by calling Bogaerts up now. His defense would be league average at best; folks are saying he could stick at shortstop, but that is hardly a sure thing. His bat wouldn't be that much better than Iglesias', at least according to the minor league equivalencies.<br /><br />With a -16 run bat, league average defense (which may be generous), and league average base running (again, probably generous given his sub 50% SB success rate on limited attempts) that would put Bogaerts as about a one and a half win player. ZIPs and Oliver both put him in about that range (1.2 and 1.9, respectively) with about 500 PA. ZIPs has Iglesias projected slightly higher (1.3), while Oliver has him a good bit lower than Bogaerts (0.4), but neither adequately address his spectacular defense, in my opinion.<br /><br />Since there is no real short term gain, and much more long term cost, I can't imagine the Sox would pull the trigger on Bogaerts.Mr. Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16676914320866059234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778433057761571364.post-83609745547278942882013-03-21T13:50:27.762-04:002013-03-21T13:50:27.762-04:00Interesting analysis. Makes me fee a little better...Interesting analysis. Makes me fee a little better about the prospect of Iglesias in the lineup on an everyday basis. Still, if we're rushing prospects anyway, how about Bogaerts?Taylorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01026034710935646258noreply@blogger.com